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The notion high CPI=higher rates=bad for markets. But the message the Fed sends is clear that it hasn’t made a decision until it has. And even a surprise drop in CPI isn’t necessarily good… if prices are falling because of poor demand then isn’t that also bad for the economy?
I feel like we’re all wrapped around this concept that fed rates are the enemy of the market when they’re more of a derivative of the economy itself. Like if CPI plummets and we end in a recession the rates come down do people really think the markets gonna rally because the 10yr is under 4?
I don’t want to be negative on the market but is there a way out that doesn’t involve pain. This soft landing only works if we’re landing not continuing to try to take off. No ones been talking about a soft field takeoff… which does exist to my pilots out there
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