What To Expect From PCE Report To Move Market On Thursday? 🤔

The Bureau of Economic Analysis is set to release the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) index for October, a crucial inflation indicator closely monitored by the Federal Reserve, on Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET.

The PCE index stands out as the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation because it offers a more comprehensive assessment of price changes for a broad range of goods and services compared to the popular Consumer Price Index (CPI) basket.

According to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, investors are currently pricing in a 78% probability of a rate increase by May 2024. Additionally, there is speculation that up to five rate cuts could occur by December 2024, with a 56% probability.

The headline PCE price index is expected to decrease from September’s year-on-year increase of 3.4% to 3% year-on-year in October.

The headline PCE price index is projected to show a month-over-month increase of 0.1%, a slowdown from the previous month’s 0.4% rise.

The core PCE price index, which excludes energy and food prices, is forecasted to ease from 3.7% year-on-year to a 3.5% year-on-year increase in October.

The monthly increase in the core PCE price index is expected to accelerate slightly from 0.3% to 0.2%.

S&P 500 up 4 weeks in a row! 🥳

How to Trade the PCE Data?

1) Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ): This ETF rose by 11% this month, marking its strongest monthly return since July 2022. It is trading just 4.5% below its all-time highs, indicating strong investor confidence in the tech-heavy index.

2) Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (NASDAQ:MAGS): Comprising a basket of seven stocks, including tech giants like Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL), Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:MSFT), Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL), Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN), Meta Platforms Inc. (NASDAQ:META), NVIDIA Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) and Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) MAGS has gained 7% this month.

3) Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation ETF (NYSE:ARKK): ARKK experienced an impressive 33% rise in November, marking its strongest monthly performance since its inception.

Swing call

Buy call

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