Negotiations between PSOE and Junts begin, and the countdown to the next General Elections begins
Today, the first negotiation session is being held in Geneva to finalize the PSOE agreements with Junts (right-wing independence party). Santos Cerdá will face Puigdemont, Jordi Turull and Miriam Nogueras. Junts’ starting position, of course, is one of maximums. They go all out, and of course they demand a broad amnesty, the collection of all taxes from the Catalans (to know what they want to do with all that money) and the independence referendum. This is the big part, although there are other issues considered fine sand that are also on the list of demands. It will be where you start, and thus you will have the feeling that agreements can be reached.
For the end, the biggest part will be left, and it is not exactly the amnesty, which has already been practically closed by the negotiators, although they have forgotten to include an important party in the negotiation: the judiciary, which can bring everything down. , and the opposition that also has its weapons to contain the negotiation and to pressure the parties.
Why is a position of maximums impossible?
The parties always raise these types of positions at the beginning of the negotiation, to later negotiate the assignments downwards under the premise of I give up a section, if you give up another section to meet at an intermediate point. But this is the case when both parties feel strong, which is not the case in this case.
At Junts they know that they have Sánchez by the balls, that his position is very weak, since the one who holds the key to the legislature is not him, but Puigdemont, and this is how he has already explained it. Never have the independence supporters had the opportunity to negotiate with a Government in such a weak situation. The Coalition has no capacity to endure, and they only have the option of giving in, and of course those of Junts are going to take advantage of the opportunity. They believe it is possible, given Sanchez’s need to remain in office, to be able to achieve everything and in this legislature, something that they never thought could be possible in such a short period of time. How not to take advantage of the opportunity.
They also know at Junts that this possibility is theirs, that ERC (leftist independence party) has nothing to do to get hold of the key, other than stealing it from Junts, which would be suicide for them. Furthermore, in 2024 there are elections in Catalonia, and everyone has to portray themselves before their electorate. The results of these elections will allow us to glimpse the final scope of the negotiation, the hardest part. If Junts surpasses ERC in votes, things are going to get much worse for the PSOE, although it is already very bad, since it finds itself in the middle of two opposing positions — right-wing independentists versus left-wing independentists — a situation that It’s going to cause problems.
From an ideological point of view, they should be closer to ERC to defend common positions, but as I already said, someone else has the key and it is from the right. The electoral campaign, its messages, and its programs are going to be thoroughly scrutinized, and we will see different approaches. Salvador Illa, leader of the catalan socialists, does not have it easy, because everything that the PSOE proposes in his Program, and that Puigdemont does not like, will have an impact on Pedro Sánchez and his legislature.
I am clear that there will come a time, and it will be after the catalan elections, when attempts will be made to cross the red lines that the Spanish Constitution has explicitly defined. The opposition of PP and Vox will be heard. The Courts of Justice will make themselves heard. Europe is watching us and will also make itself heard if necessary.
This moment will be crucial for the legislature, and I think it will happen after the catalan elections, either in the second half of 2024, or in the first half of 2025. It will be when Puigdemont confirms that there will be no Catalan Treasury, nor a self-determination referendum, that will be when separate from the governing coalition and let the legislature fall. Puigdemont doesn’t give a damn whether Sánchez is or is not President of the Government. What he wants he will know since he cannot give it to him, and he will have no reason to keep him in the position.
What will happen next?
From that moment on, new strategies will be established regarding the continuation of Catalonia as part of Spain, both on the part of the independentists, who would only have two paths left to follow: one of radicalization, another of the search for their part of a better integration of Catalonia into the Spanish State, once segregation is no longer contemplated. On the part of the Spanish State, with new elections looming after the failure of the Coalition legislature, it will be the moment in which the voters will do their calculations, and will pass the corresponding invoices with their vote.
It is possible with greater certainty that a change of political course will occur, based on new proposals that are taken seriously by the Spanish people. Whoever wins these Elections will have to reach out to recover coexistence in the country, reducing polarization, and seeking consensus through State Pacts that make the necessary reforms, including the Constitution, that stabilize the new course of the country, in a critical situation with enormous problems ahead to solve, and not just internal ones. I am referring to the climate, the integration of society in new technologies, immigration problems, and many other issues that require a lot of attention and dedication. These are the problems of the world, to which in Spain we must add the reforms to stabilize the Autonomous State.
We are reaching so low that all we have left is either the disintegration of Spain or the reconstruction of a New State. It’s in our hands.
El artículo se puede leer en español en este enlace.
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