Market log for 4 Dec 2023, Monday
In Monday’s stock market, a significant downturn pressure was witnessed, with the market showing divergence at its peak. The divergence, particularly in the KDJ indicator, often accumulates dynamic energy, posing the potential for a sudden downward movement. The S&P 500 index, after a modest increase in the past two weeks, displayed a progressively lower KDJ situation. The accuracy of a top divergence in KDJ deserves attention, though blind reliance is cautioned. When KDJ turns down from above 80, it signals overbought conditions, suggesting weakening buying strength and potential challenges for the market’s upward momentum. Severe divergences may lead to corrective moves in the form of neutral or even bearish candlesticks in the index.
However, it’s essential to note that KDJ divergence primarily serves as a short-term indicator and does not significantly impact long-term trends.
While the S&P 500 divergence might not be crystal clear, the Nasdaq index exhibits a conspicuous divergence. As the Nasdaq moves sideways, KDJ drops from above 80 to 60, indicating a clear downward angle. Flat index movement coupled with descending KDJ is a signal of a top divergence. Notably, top divergences don’t always result in major downturns; KDJ might experience a short-term decline before reversing and re-entering an upward channel. Divergence implies a potential risk of adjustment in the market. A sudden market drop during the week could signal the resurgence of KDJ top divergence.
Interestingly, while the S&P and Nasdaq show subdued performance, the Dow Jones and Russell 2000 remain relatively robust.
The Dow Jones, comprising 30 well-established stocks, has displayed volatile trends in recent years. Despite intermittent surges and declines, the index lacks a clear long-term trend. Predicting movements in such indices is challenging due to unpredictable shifts in sentiment and timing. Contrary to the horizontal movement in other major indices, the Dow Jones has initiated a sustained upward trajectory. The Dow’s rapid ascent is expected to encounter resistance around 37,000 points, while the Russell 2000, dominated by small-cap stocks, is anticipated to find support, potentially signaling a bottoming trend.
Over the weekend, attention has shifted to significant developments in gold and Bitcoin, particularly the latter’s remarkable surge.
Gold, despite not experiencing a $1000 surge, has steadily accumulated several hundred dollars per ounce over an extended period. The focus on gold intensified over the weekend as it breached the $2000 mark, marking a historic high. Geopolitical tensions, stimulated by conflicts such as the Israel-Palestine conflict, have historically driven gold prices higher. The diminished confidence in fiat currency, coupled with expectations of declining interest rates starting next year, contributes to gold’s appeal as a solid asset. The potential softening of the U.S. dollar is a major positive factor for gold, with forecasts predicting a price of $2200 per ounce by the end of 2024.
In contrast, Bitcoin has exhibited exuberant behavior, surging since last Wednesday and reaching around $42,000 over the weekend. Bitcoin, sensitive to interest rate policies, witnessed a previous surge during the post-pandemic era of quantitative easing. Recent momentum in Bitcoin is attributed to the potential approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The limited supply of Bitcoin, designed to undergo mining difficulty adjustments every four years, aligns with positive market sentiment. $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ stock price rises due to the penalty imposed on Binance and Bitcoin’s surge.
One standout performer today is $Hawaiian(HA)$ surging nearly 200% due to its merger with Alaska Air. Mergers can lead to unpredictable and substantial market reactions, as demonstrated by the sudden and substantial rise in HA stock following the acquisition announcement. Such events highlight the unpredictable nature of the market, emphasizing the need for cautious observation rather than unwarranted speculation.
The blog also touches on the recent addition of Uber to the S&P 500 index, signifying its inclusion as a constituent stock. This move is expected to attract passive investment, primarily through ETFs. The continuous growth and reshuffling of indices reflect the market’s natural process of eliminating weaker companies and incorporating profitable, promising ones.
Additionally, $Spotify Technology S.A.(SPOT)$ s significant stock surged amid plans to lay off 1500 employees. The CEO cited increased capital expenditures and rising interest rates as factors affecting profits, reinforcing the intricate relationship between inflation, employment data, and interest rate decisions.
Comments