Bull case for TLT 1) recession

2023-12-07

Bull case for TLT

1) recession . Normally flight to safety so TLT will rise

2) cut in fed fund rates. TLT has long duration so more sensitive to rate changes so TLT will rise more than short term treasury bills or notes

3) TLT has fallen more than 50%

Bear case for TLT

1) treasury debt situation. If US Gov can't solve their debt spiral , people will lose faith and not buy treasuries and this will affect TLT.

However , the Fed can support by being the last buyer of treasuries , so there is a support .

10Y Treasury Yield Surge! Time to Sell Put of TLT?

The US stock and bond markets faced another setback on Wednesday as the growth rate of U.S. retail sales doubled from the previous month, further cooling expectations of an interest rate cut. Currently, traders have reduced the probability of a rate cut in March to about 50%. The 10-year US Treasury yield increased by 4.2 basis points to 4.107%. ------------------------ With the sharp rise in bond yields, is it a good time to sell put TLT?

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