This week is a crucial week for central banks. On Wednesday, it is the last interest rate meeting of the year for the Federal Reserve, and not raising interest rates is already the market consensus. In addition to the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, Switzerland, and Norway will also hold meetings. Except for the Central Bank of Norway, the others are likely to maintain stable interest rates.
Major banks and experts predict a decrease of 125 basis points in interest rates next year. The optimism surrounding the potential rate cut, starting as early as March, has boosted the recent bullish sentiment in the stock market. A scenario where the economy remains stable and there is a slight interest rate cut is considered the best scenario for the stock market's strength. The "Santa Claus rally" is still a statistically probable event in December, and with the steady rise of the US stock market, the trend may continue to be upward.
The trend of the S&P 500 breaking through the previous high points is quite impressive. It neither experienced a significant rapid ascent nor hesitated. The breakthrough of the previous resistance at 4607 points with three small bullish candles was achieved smoothly. This breakthrough was not prominently visible on the candlestick chart, but the volume quietly supported the breakout. The slow upward trend is less likely to stop, a characteristic observed in the long-term history of the US stock market.
The Nasdaq index has not yet surpassed its previous phase's high points, but it is likely to do so soon. After the breakthrough, the K-line chart for the past year or so will form a bottom pattern, with sufficient adjustment time and space. This could support the continued slow rise of the index, with upward pressure around 15,000 points and 16,212 points.
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