Newbie's Blog: Preparing for the marathon

Jo Tan
2023-12-19

Amidst talk of a Christmas Rally as well as with an increased optimistic outlook due to the impending rate cuts, I am instead thinking about what stocks I should add to my portfolio. 

I remind myself that I am running a marathon and a Christmas rally or even rate cuts are merely "rest points" or perhaps "water points". 

What's more important is the strategy to invest which involves choosing a company and holding it for the long term. Fundamentally, it is difficult to choose a "good" company as it is unlikely that an established company hasn't already been discovered and its price point is already high, especially since last year till today. Covid-19 is somewhat behind us and people are learning to live with a somewhat troubled but peaceful period amidst war in some countries.

Bar unexpected events, the outlook for the timebeing certainly looks rosy. Alas, I would not be the only one seeing it now and prices for $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ $Microsoft(MSFT)$  and $Alphabet(GOOGL)$  would already have started climbing. The key question is, which other company still has room to grow? For now, my strategy is to invest in EV companies. This is certainly no secret, but of course, the question is which? Carvana (looking good), Faraday (boooo) or perhaps everyone's go to, Tesla or BYD? Even traditional ICE companies like Ford are switching their strategy and they should not be discounted. 

My thoughts are to have a bit of all. You never know which could be the next upcoming thing and I certainly don't feel like I'm some guru. Keeping this perspective, I know that no matter how many Christmas rallies there are, I'm in it for the long run. Would I definitely stick to my strategy? Well, I am prone to deviation and this will definitely be reminders for me to stick the course. I've recently sold Nio and looked what happened. I mean it stayed so low at around $7 and it rose 10% last night. Despite this, all these efforts are part of my learning journey and i hope to continue building my portfolio instead of letting go to cut loss or for quick profits.


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Comments

  • Lionel8383
    2023-12-19
    Lionel8383
    For EVs, as the industry has too many players, and none have a wide economic moat. Hence their future cashflows are hard to predict. The automotive industry also is capex intensive, as to build scale they need to build more factories and invest in equipment.


    Indeed one of them could 10x provided it has pricing power and able to maintain their high margins, but it is also not a guarantee.


    Instead look at companies that are consistently generating revenue, profits and free cash flow, and are able to maintain their margins. There are still opportunities in healthcare and consumer staples which have had a not so good year.
    • Jo Tan
      thanks for your pointers
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