Donald Trump is the first US president to be criminally prosecuted. Mixing elections with trials, the dock with the White House, and the non-dismissable possibility of a self-pardon, means that the foreseeable result could be catastrophic for American democracy. If the first blow was the assault on Congress, a second blow can be dramatic for the country from which it may not be able to recover.
For all these reasons, the year 2024 will be decisive for American democracy. It will depend on six keys that must be intertwined between Justice and politics. Pedro Rodriguez, a professor and expert in International Relations, and Content Director of the Política Exterior Review, analyzes the situation which he summarizes in six points.
Let’s review these six keys one by one:
1.– A question of impunity. After successfully overcoming two impeachment trials, Trump has accumulated around twenty criminal investigations and civil lawsuits. In total, he faces four main accusations with more than ninety charges: two cases in federal jurisdiction for trying to overturn the 2020 elections and for improper handling of classified documents, a state case for electoral interference in Georgia and one in New York for fraud. to build a convenient wall of silence in his first presidential campaign. Victimhood is his main line of defense, trying to discredit the action of Justice as “an attack on our country like we have never seen before.”
2.– Guaranteed show. When it seemed that interest in his adventures was waning, Trump used his court battle as a renewed political scenario. As he did by transforming his reality show “The Apprentice” into his presidential pre-campaign, Trump uses his time in court to reinforce his political relevance. He illustrates the commercial use he has given to the first mugshot of him and the requests by his lawyers that at least the federal trial in Washington be broadcast on television.
3.– Federal case for the attack on the Capitol. This prosecution formalized in August focuses on Trump’s various efforts to reverse his defeat in the November 2020 elections. Including the January 6, 2021 assault on the headquarters of Congress in Washington, just at the time of the certification legislative victory of Joe Biden. Trump has been charged with four counts: conspiracy to violate rights, conspiracy to defraud the government, obstruction of an official proceeding and a fourth related conspiracy count.
4.– Electoral interference in Georgia. For the orchestrated efforts to reverse his electoral defeat in Georgia in 2020, Trump and 18 accomplices were prosecuted last August in that state. They all face conspiracy charges related to attempting to overturn state results and subvert the will of voters. Three of the defendants have already pleaded guilty. In a famous phone call, the then-president asked Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger to “find 11,780 votes,” the exact number plus one he needed to win.
5.– The case of the secret documents. Related to confidential documents that Trump took to his Mar-a-Lago residence in violation of the Espionage Act of 1917. Following an FBI search, a federal grand jury in Florida in June approved his indictment for 37 crimes, including them unauthorized retention of national security secrets and obstruction of the government’s efforts to recover the files. The trial’s start date is set for May 20, 2024, two months before the Republican National Convention.
6.– Criminal case in Manhattan. This case is related to surreptitious payments to cover up a sex scandal during Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign. The former president was charged in April 2023 with a total of 34 counts of falsifying business records of the Trump Organization related to the reimbursement made to Michael Cohen, his lawyer and confidant, for payments made in the amount of $130,000 to silence Stormy Daniels, an adult film actress. The trial will begin in New York State Court on March 25, 2024, three weeks after Super Tuesday, the main day on the primary calendar.
Given the cases, and taking into account that 2024 is an electoral year, what may happen with Donald Trump is difficult to predict, since the character has to fight to the extreme possible to be an electoral candidate, and if he succeeds he has a chance of leaving. elected, which would be a drama for the country, since the biggest loser would not be the defeated Democratic candidate, but democracy itself.
It is very important for the democratic world that the United States does not lose its democratic quality. The damage would not only be for the North American people, but would extend to the rest of the democratic peoples of the world, at a time when extreme polarization is spreading throughout the world, and where if democracy fails, any violation of the rights of the man it may be possible.
The entire world will be very attentive to what will happen in the United States throughout the year 2024, a year that will make history and at the same time will mark the future of the world.
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