happyli
2024-01-05

$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$

I feel a sense of foreboding about the future of the economy. There are logical explanations to why the actual recession as been delayed: the largest pump of liquidity and spendable money EVER in our history (which has been shut off btw)... and we have now seen M2 begin to decline and bank credit trend return to being weak. In addition, all of the corporate refinancing that will take place in 2024 and going forward (at much higher rates because so many took advantage of low IR environment in 2020-21). Slowly more and more we will see the effects of things hit and we will see the real economy (not this fake economy) and whether or not it can stand on its own two feet. It can't imo, not with interest rates where they are today and not without some short pain hitting first.

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