Bitcoin ETFs and its implications

Bitcoin ETFs cross the line, as we know it.. at US market close on 10 Jan 2024, to be exact and started their first day of trading on 11 Jan 2024.

The price of Bitcoin has recovered spectacularly from 2022's scandals-triggered struggles due to the heightened expectations of Bitcoin ETFs SEC's approval. 

What does the ETFs approval mean for Bitcoin and Bitcoin related themes? Where will Bitcoin go from here?

The SEC's Bitcoin ETFs approval seems foregone conclusion after Grayscale's successful court challenge against SEC in August 2023. Just see how the price of Bitcoin really took off from early September 2023 followed this ruling. 

It has in fact more than doubled within 4 months! It is obvious that speculators ('investors' to others) have already priced in the approval event. Many participants of cryptocurrency are already in the game. When no one is left to buy, the Bitcoin price corrects. What needs to happen is for new participants to come in. In this case, those who would join the Bitcoin ETFs' ride, the FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) crowd. It is then a matter of balance between people taking profits in Bitcoin vs people entering via ETF's route. I suspect there would be a slow correction in the early days.

I won't pick any particular ETF to join. 

To me, I can't place a valuation in Bitcoin or any other cryptocurrency. 

I understand it is about supply-demand in simple economic term. However, there is no tangible asset attached to it. Just some brilliant Mathematical algorithms and their associate numbers. It is science, yet it is art.

Buying into cryptocurrency is like placing my faith in some limited edition Pokémon cards. For the record, I could still frame the Pokémon cards and show them off occasionally.

 [Cool]  [Happy]  [LOL]  [Facepalm]  [Sly]  [Smug]  [Tongue]  

I can't convince myself that if Cathie Wood is right, I will give my house away for one Bitcoin or even half a Bitcoin. A number in a system. I fully understand that we live in a cyber-filled world. However, my life is still physical, tangible, not in the cyberspace. Call me outdated or dinosaur 🦖🦕. I want to be an investor that can put a value on something. Occasionally, I speculate. If I want to be involved in cryptocurrency, I will go for an altcoin that has not flown. To me, they are mere speculative numbers. The upside potential is likely greater when speculation fever hits! The downside also won't be as heart-breaking or spectacular!

Does anyone new to Bitcoin know how many Bitcoin in total? 21M (millions). That's where ARK21 Shares Bitcoin ETF got its name. How many currently in circulation? 19.6M. 

I heard some people saying that with each halving event (which happens in April this year), the number of Bitcoin gets rarer! Does it become more precious just because mining them gets more difficult? No! It just means that the miners earn less! Most of the Bitcoin is already in circulation and there's only 1.4M left to go. By slowing down the circulation doesn't mean that it becomes more precious. It becomes more expensive when more people are willing to throw money after it! Meaning when more people are convinced to speculate. That is why ETFs approval is so important for the cryptocurrency community! There's only so many believers. When no one is left to buy, the price will go down. With ETFs, more people would be roped in to prolong the game. 

Is Bitcoin here to stay and how the ETF's approval will affect the Bitcoin related listed firms?

I guess with ETFs, there's likely to have more participants to keep the Bitcoin price running longer. So yes, I expect Bitcoin to survive, for now.

With halving event, I expect Bitcoin miners like $Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(MARA)$  and $Riot Blockchain, Inc.(RIOT)$  to be adversely affected. The competition from ETFs will also ironically adversely affect crypto-supporters like $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$   and $MicroStrategy(MSTR)$ . Now that people have an alternate mean to invest directly in Bitcoin, they might redirect their investment/speculation dollars to the ETFs. 

A final word on Bitcoin. Whilst I agree that decentralised control used by Bitcoin is revolutionary, I don't trust the 1% Bitcoin holders who hold 90% of the Bitcoin holding and the governments controlling the legislation to do the right thing. We are just humans...

I also do not trust a "currency" that could go to $1M+ (according to Cathie Wood) or go to a dollar or less, on supply-demand! I wonder how unstable that world would be... I do not want to be there when it happens, so I will focus on investing in the conventional assets-back companies, like Warren Buffet.

But, this is just me... [Tongue]  [Silence]  [Onlooker]  [Chuckle]  [Eye]  

@TigerStars  @CaptainTiger  @LMSunshine