The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ is way more expensive than it appears.
Based on base rates, the index is in the 99th percentile of valuation.
See: (1) CAPE ratio, (2) Market Cap vs. GDP, (3) Equity Risk Premium, (4) Price/Book.
Bubble territory!
As the toothy bite of STAGFLATION starts to rend investor optimism, earnings will decline and multiples will contract.
History tells us we're staring at a (-50%) decline.
See: 2000 or 2008.
The Fed put is dead, and rates will be higher for longer.
Geopolitics + Domestic Politics + Inflation + War + Commercial Real Estate + Housing + Supply Chains = CATALYSTS.
The writing is on the wall.
STRONG SELL
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