Hi I'm Daniel. My relationship with Nio is like an ex-girlfriend, not the kind that you can still be friends with.
I got into Nio at a great time back when it was hitting the all time highs, due to the EV hype. I also went into the pits with Nio during the China ADR crisis, the China property market bust.
In short, I can say I know Nio quite well. I can say the management team at Nio is very futuristic thinking, as the name implies. They took a unconventional route to penetrate the market but trying to establish itself as a upmarket car brand, listing overseas in Singapore, partnering with smaller global car brands, battery swaps, just to name a few. These are tough battles that I certainly wouldn't take if I were in that position, but it's Nio.
I'M BEARISH, HERE'S WHY
Though NIO is still churning out new models every few months, I felt that consumers interest are getting sluggish with the new designs every few months from so many EV car brands.
NIO cars come at a more premium pricing, understandably for what the cars offer. They are giving discounts to make the prices more attractive, then why price it high in the first place?
This brings me to my next point on price sensitivity, we aren't actually out of the woods in the financial markets. Consumers spending behaviour is still leaning towards protective spending when it comes to big ticket items.
In the near future, I take the view that there will be no meaningful increase in demand. It is still a tough dog fight for the China EVs. Thus, I'm bearish and I believe a good ENTRY point is USD 4.80. Given the current price of USD 5.40, NIO should be scrapping the bottom soon.
LONG TERM VIEWS
I can see that ultimately NIO is busing a good moat, when the right time comes, it should be going back above USD 10. However, I don't think that is within a one year timeline.
Today I have just exited from OCUL and VMEO taking a small profit, currently I'm holding some interesting counters being $Cardinal Health(CAH)$ and $Synchronoss Technologies, Inc.(SNCR)$. Both OCUL and CAH are in the healthcare research sector which have done exceeding well in the past few months. The main driver is the view that the market is recovering and money started flowing into research again.
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