Hi everyone! Let’s look at another biotech company:
*TA as of 4/3/24
Moderna, Inc. (NASDAQ: MRNA)
*I have charted MRNA a long time ago. Consider this newsletter the latest forecast on MRNA’s price action in the coming months.
On the weekly chart, there are several things to unpack. Firstly, MRNA is making a series of long-term higher lows (blue ascending trendline). It is trading in a potential expanding triangle pattern (purple trendlines). It has previously been bounded by lower highs, with a resistance trendline that formed over the past 2 years (red descending trendline)
However, it has since broken out of this trendline, and is now trading in a shorter-term ascending channel from its higher low (green trendline). Note the large hidden bullish divergence that has formed over this entire period, suggesting that we might be seeing a new long-term swing higher from here.
On the daily chart, notice there is a short-term hidden bullish divergence that formed on a retest of the ascending channel bottom trendline, while MRNA consolidated above the 83.73 bull gap. We also broke out of the near-term resistance trendline (orange trendline), and are in the midst of retesting the 91.06 level. The most amount of risk I would give to longs would be a complete gap fill at 88.57 before a move higher. Some basing here would turn it into a neat support level for the longer term as well.
After this consolidation move down is complete, I am expecting MRNA to push towards the 128.98 imbalance (top heavy wick with fairly large volume) and fill it, which would also coincide with a move towards the 23.6% Fib extension at 126.22. We are likely to commence another down leg there, however, I would only update my TA once we get there, or if my analysis is invalidated.
Sentiment: BUY
Summary (with Price Targets - NFA):
Ascending channel pattern with a measured move towards 128.98 (Jul’23 imbalance). Currently in a shorter term consolidation which should terminate at 91.06. At most, it gap fills at 88.57 before pushing higher.
Investors can accumulate MRNA at current levels all the way down to 88.57. I would only turn bearish on MRNA when we form a lower low below 62.55.
All right, that’s all for this newsletter. Till next time!
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