*TA as of 11/3/24
Hi everyone, today I’ll be updating my TA for a legacy automaker which I last covered a long time ago:
Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F)
F is trading in a long-term bullish rounding bottom setup - notice how “perfect” the bottoms have been thus far. Just by looking at the monthly setup, it is pretty evident where the long-term target is situated - namely the 31.37 imbalance from 2001! Moreover, notice the falling wedge (orange trendlines) setup back into the rounding bottom support, which we’ll cover in greater detail below.
On the weekly chart, we can see that F has been trading in a falling wedge consolidation pattern since… January 2022! It has been more than 2 years of mindless chop. However, in January this year, F broke out of the falling wedge on increased volume and is now trading in a nearer-term bull flag pattern (blue trendlines), which we’ll explore next.
On the daily chart, we can see the consolidation bull flag pretty clearly. Hidden bullish divergence formed to confirm a higher low, and now we’re coming back to retest this ascending trendline. Lower highs are being made on both the chart and on RSI. A break out of this flag will see a move towards the 13.65-13.70 gap fill, while a break down will see a retest of 11.90s.
Furthermore, note that a break out of the orange falling wedge should ultimately see a measured move back to the 15.45 gap fill in the shorter-term and January 2022 highs (25.87) in the longer-term.
Will F be successful as it continues to transition towards selling EVs over ICE-powered models? Perhaps algorithms and institutions think so in the longer-term.
Sentiment: BUY
Summary (with Price Targets - NFA):
Long-term rounding bottom setup with a measured move towards 31.37, medium-term falling wedge consolidation pattern with a measured move towards 15.45 and eventually 25.87, as well as a near-term bull flag pattern with a measured move towards 13.70.
Investors can consider accumulating shares at current levels or on a retest of 11.90s. If we break down below this level, then look towards the 10.83 prior support level. If we break back into the falling wedge, then we could potentially make a new low this year.
F’s transition towards EVs over ICE-powered models might prove valuable in the long run, as they take on Chinese EV companies (BYD, Li etc.) and Tesla.
Alright, that’s it for this newsletter. Till the next one!
$Ford(F)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $General Motors(GM)$ $BYD Co., Ltd.(BYDDY)$ $Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$
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