Samlunch
04-30

Another sign higher for longer is back:

According to the New York Fed, wage inflation is sticky around 5%.

This is more than double the Fed's long-term 2% target that they continue to stand by.

Needless to say, 5% wage inflation should not come as a surprise after the latest inflation data.

CPI inflation is now up for 2 straight months and PPI inflation nearly doubled year-over-year.

We are not ready for lower rates yet.

So now the US economy has:

1) Dropping confidence

2) 4 months of hotter inflation

3) $2 trillion annual deficits

4) ~$34.5trillion in debt

5) ~1.5 million full-time jobs decline with 1.9M part-time jobs created over a year

What could possibly go wrong?

Will FOMC Decision Shake the Market?
Following three consecutive months of inflation reports surpassing expectations, traders are currently projecting September as the earliest month for the initial reduction, as indicated by the CME Group’s FedWatch tool. ------------ Will FOMC decision change rate cut expectation? Do you expect 1 or 2 rate cuts this year? Will Powell turn to hawkish or dovish in this meeting?
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