Will "sell in May and go away" happen this year?
Not necessarily if there’s an ongoing bull market.
From 1965 to 2021, the S&P 500 saw positive returns on average in May if a bull market was present.
At the same time, if there was a bear market then the index experienced negative performance.
Currently, the S&P 500 is up 7% year to date, rebounding from the recent ~6% pullback, and ~25% since October 2023.
If we are in a bull market, May is likely to end up being a strong month.
If not, history says the decline has only just begun.
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