NVDA: SOME TRAPS IN IT....

$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ Suppose if NVDA's profit margin declined from 57-59% to, say, 43%, which would put it about on par with the next largest competitor, Broadcom (38-48% profit margin), for next year, 2026. [LOL][LOL][LOL]

Their earnings would be LOWER than the lowest wall street analyst estimate.

Somehow, I really doubt they both will be able to drain the budgets of their clients at this rate for so many quarters in a row and both will see their profit margins decline substantially.

We saw Meta's stock tank badly after earnings, and they are Nvidia's largest customer buying up hundreds of thousands of chips a quarter. They will not only pay less premium, they will very likely also cut back on their wacky AI spending spree.

Maintaining today's P/E, that would give you about 905$/share, After a new technology comes out it usually takes years before the next cycle begins, so if the next AI shopping spree is in 2027, that P/E should even go much lower for the next 2 years.

If the P/E goes down 13%, You get just under $800/share.

It will go down even more when they finally acknowledge the recession officially.[Surprised][Angry][Sweats]

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Please share you Insights or comments on companies or technologies of AI industry.","image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4603961061b4e1f67cb838e908cb17bf"}],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"NVDA: SOME TRAPS IN IT....","html":"<html><head></head><body><p> <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVIDIA Corp\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>Suppose if NVDA's profit margin declined from 57-59% to, say, 43%, which would put it about on par with the next largest competitor, Broadcom (38-48% profit margin), for next year, 2026. &nbsp;<span class=\"teditor-emoji\">[LOL]</span><span class=\"teditor-emoji\">[LOL]</span><span class=\"teditor-emoji\">[LOL]</span></p><p>Their earnings would be LOWER than the lowest wall street analyst estimate.</p><p>Somehow, I really doubt they both will be able to drain the budgets of their clients at this rate for so many quarters in a row and both will see their profit margins decline substantially. &nbsp;</p><p>We saw Meta's stock tank badly after earnings, and they are Nvidia's largest customer buying up hundreds of thousands of chips a quarter. 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They will not only pay less premium, they will very likely also cut back on their wacky AI spending spree. &nbsp;</p><p>Maintaining today's P/E, that would give you about 905$/share, After a new technology comes out it usually takes years before the next cycle begins, so if the next AI shopping spree is in 2027, that P/E should even go much lower for the next 2 years. &nbsp;</p><p>If the P/E goes down 13%, You get just under $800/share. &nbsp;</p><p>It will go down even more when they finally acknowledge the recession officially.<span class=\"teditor-emoji\">[Surprised]</span><span class=\"teditor-emoji\">[Angry]</span><span class=\"teditor-emoji\">[Sweats]</span></p><p></p><p>&nbsp;</p></body></html>","text":"$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ Suppose if NVDA's profit margin declined from 57-59% to, say, 43%, which would put it about on par with the next largest competitor, Broadcom (38-48% profit margin), for next year, 2026. [LOL][LOL][LOL] Their earnings would be LOWER than the lowest wall street analyst estimate. Somehow, I really doubt they both will be able to drain the budgets of their clients at this rate for so many quarters in a row and both will see their profit margins decline substantially. We saw Meta's stock tank badly after earnings, and they are Nvidia's largest customer buying up hundreds of thousands of chips a quarter. They will not only pay less premium, they will very likely also cut back on their wacky AI spending spree. Maintaining today's P/E, that would give you about 905$/share, After a new technology comes out it usually takes years before the next cycle begins, so if the next AI shopping spree is in 2027, that P/E should even go much lower for the next 2 years. If the P/E goes down 13%, You get just under $800/share. 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