Nick Timiraos, the "Fed mouthpiece," wrote that forecasters expect the Fed's preferred inflation measure to show a modest rise in May after the Labor Department's CPI data showed that price pressures eased last month. The Fed's preferred PCE data is scheduled to be released later this month, but people can make estimates based on the CPI and the upcoming PPI data. Several components that caused the CPI reading to be lower than expected in May, such as air tickets and health care, are not included in the PCE. Despite this, Wall Street forecasters still expect the core PCE to rise by 0.11%~0.15% in May, which would be the mildest monthly increase so far this year. At the same time, this would reduce the core PCE annual rate in May from 2.8% in April to 2.6%.
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