Samlunch
06-22

What’s the probability of a recession within the next 12 months?

According to the Fed model using the US Treasury yield curve, there is a 52% chance of a recession over the next year.

This is down from the 71% peak recorded in May 2023.

Over the last 40 years, each time this probability has exceeded 30% the US economy experienced an economic downturn within 2 years.

Meanwhile, the yield curve has been inverted for over 700 days, the longest stretch in history.

A soft landing may still be difficult to attain.

Will Broader Market Recover or Pullback This Week?
This year, the U.S. stock market has hit new highs on over 20 days. Investors have been living in constant fear of FOMO amid the continuous rise. The market plummeted, and star stocks pulled back last week. Some investors have shifted from buying calls to buying puts. ---------------------- Is the long-awaited market correction finally here? Or is this just a minor adjustment before the next leg up? Will you hedge the portfolio risk? Will the stock market rebound this week?
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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