1. Discretionary Spending:

Apple products, particularly iPhones and iPads, are seen as discretionary purchases. Consumers are more likely to buy these items when the economy is strong and feeling flush with cash. During economic downturns, people tend to tighten their belts and prioritize essential goods over new gadgets.

2. Product Upgrade Cycle:

Apple relies heavily on releasing new versions of its flagship products to drive sales. This creates a cyclical pattern where sales surge after a major release, then taper off until the next upgrade. For instance, iPhone sales might be phenomenal after a major redesign, but then level off until the next significant update.

https://www.statista.com/chart/amp/3784/iphone-market-share/

AI Rally and Unrealized Performance

The recent AI boom has positioned Apple as a potential leader in the field with its "Apple Intelligence" suite. However, the financial benefits of this haven't fully translated into the stock price yet for a couple of reasons:

Early Stage: 

Generative AI is still a nascent technology. While Apple's developments are promising, it might take time for them to translate into significant revenue streams. Investors might wait for concrete results before fully pricing in the AI potential.

Uncertainty around Implementation: 

The success of AI integration depends on user adoption and how effectively Apple leverages this technology across its products and services. Until there's a clear picture of the impact on user behavior and financials, the stock price might not fully reflect the AI potential.

The cyclical nature of Apple shares can raise concerns about its suitability as an investment, especially considering the recent AI-driven overvaluation.

During economic downturns, consumers tend to spend less on discretionary items like iPhones and iPads. This can lead to a significant drop in Apple's revenue and stock price.

Unproven Revenue Potential: The financial benefits of Apple's AI advancements ("Apple Intelligence") are yet to be realized. Investors might be overly optimistic, pushing the stock price beyond its justified value based on current financials.

Uncertainty around Implementation: Even if the AI technology is impressive, its success depends on user adoption and effective integration across Apple products. Until the impact on financials is clear, the stock price might be inflated.