Everyone knows that growth as declined across the board over the last couple years. But by how much? I wanted to share a couple charts. The chart below shows the median NTM growth rate of the software basket I track. I add companies to this basket as they go public, and remove them as they get acquired.
Outside of the obvious macro conditions, another reason for the median declining is that we haven’t had many new higher growth IPOs. As you can from the chart below, the median growth rate has fallen by ~50% in the last 2 years from ~25% to ~12%
The below scatter plots show the multiple vs growth rate scatter from 1 year ago (top) to today (bottom). One year ago there were 8 companies with NTM growth >30%. Today there are zero
Top 10 EV / NTM Revenue Multiples
$CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$ $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ $Cloudflare, Inc.(NET)$ $Datadog(DDOG)$ $Samsara, Inc.(IOT)$ $ServiceNow(NOW)$ $Snowflake(SNOW)$ $Palo Alto Networks(PANW)$ $Zscaler Inc.(ZS)$ $HubSpot(HUBS)$
Top 10 Weekly Share Price Movement
Update on Multiples
SaaS businesses are generally valued on a multiple of their revenue - in most cases the projected revenue for the next 12 months. Revenue multiples are a shorthand valuation framework. Given most software companies are not profitable, or not generating meaningful FCF, it’s the only metric to compare the entire industry against. Even a DCF is riddled with long term assumptions. The promise of SaaS is that growth in the early years leads to profits in the mature years. Multiples shown below are calculated by taking the Enterprise Value (market cap + debt - cash) / NTM revenue.
Overall Stats:
Overall Median: 5.2x
Top 5 Median: 16.3x
10Y: 4.4%
Bucketed by Growth. In the buckets below I consider high growth >27% projected NTM growth (I had to update this, as there’s only 1 company projected to grow >30% after this quarter’s earnings), mid growth 15%-27% and low growth <15%
High Growth Median: 10.7x
Mid Growth Median: 7.9x
Low Growth Median: 3.8x
EV / NTM Rev / NTM Growth
The below chart shows the EV / NTM revenue multiple divided by NTM consensus growth expectations. So a company trading at 20x NTM revenue that is projected to grow 100% would be trading at 0.2x. The goal of this graph is to show how relatively cheap / expensive each stock is relative to their growth expectations
EV / NTM FCF
The line chart shows the median of all companies with a FCF multiple >0x and <100x. I created this subset to show companies where FCF is a relevant valuation metric.
Companies with negative NTM FCF are not listed on the chart
Scatter Plot of EV / NTM Rev Multiple vs NTM Rev Growth
How correlated is growth to valuation multiple?
Operating Metrics
Median NTM growth rate: 12%
Median LTM growth rate: 17%
Median Gross Margin: 75%
Median Operating Margin (10%)
Median FCF Margin: 14%
Median Net Retention: 110%
Median CAC Payback: 53 months
Median S&M % Revenue: 40%
Median R&D % Revenue: 25%
Median G&A % Revenue: 15%
Comps Output
Rule of 40 shows rev growth + FCF margin (both LTM and NTM for growth + margins). FCF calculated as Cash Flow from Operations - Capital Expenditures
GM Adjusted Payback is calculated as: (Previous Q S&M) / (Net New ARR in Q x Gross Margin) x 12 . It shows the number of months it takes for a SaaS business to payback their fully burdened CAC on a gross profit basis. Most public companies don’t report net new ARR, so I’m taking an implied ARR metric (quarterly subscription revenue x 4). Net new ARR is simply the ARR of the current quarter, minus the ARR of the previous quarter. Companies that do not disclose subscription rev have been left out of the analysis and are listed as NA.
https://cloudedjudgement.substack.com/p/clouded-judgement-7524-declining
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