Last night, the US CPI data was very good, but the Nasdaq fell nearly 2%. The external logic is very complicated and the trend is also very exciting. There are many important changes in US stocks, gold, and exchange rates at the same time.

Last night, the three major US stock indexes showed serious differentiation. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.08%, but the Nasdaq fell by nearly 2%. Tesla fell by more than 8%, ending its 11-day winning streak. Nvidia fell by more than 5%. The international gold price rose by 1.77%. US real estate companies rose sharply. In addition, financial stocks rose overall before the start of the earnings season.

It is reported that Tesla postponed the release of the driverless taxi Robotaxi from August to October to give the project team time to make more car prototypes, so Tesla's stock price plummeted by more than 8%. Recently, the concept of driverless driving in China has also been very popular. Tesla's shutdown may affect related sectors. Friends who like to play speculation should pay attention.

Last night, the US CPI rose 3% year-on-year in June, lower than the expected 3.1%, falling to the lowest level since June last year; the CPI fell 0.1% month-on-month in June, the first month-on-month decline since May 2020, and was estimated to rise 0.1%, with the previous value of 0%.

Powell's statement on interest rate cuts on Capitol Hill the day before yesterday, coupled with such good inflation data, has caused the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut to soar, and the US dollar index fell sharply last night. According to CME's Fed interest rate observation tool, the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates at the September meeting has risen to nearly 90%, higher than the 80% expected before the report was released.

There is no doubt that the US CPI data last night was very good. We have said many times in this week's morning reading that many US stock funds are betting on the expectation of CPI in advance, so I think the reason for the sharp drop in the Nasdaq is that the previous expectations were full, and the decline last night was the realization of expectations, and also because of changes in the preferences of the US stock market.

Last night, the Russell 2000 index, which represents small and medium-sized stocks in the U.S., rose 3.57%, the best single-day performance in seven months. Driven by the optimistic expectations of interest rate cuts, this shows that funds have withdrawn from the safe transactions long favored by large technology companies and turned to the riskier small and medium-sized stock market.

It is obvious that the Fed's interest rate cuts are getting closer and closer. With the decline of the US dollar, the renminbi has appreciated relatively, which has eased the pressure on our exchange rate.

The renminbi appreciated significantly yesterday. In addition to the impact of the US CPI, there are also Russian factors. As the West has strengthened financial sanctions against Russia, the Moscow Exchange was forced to stop trading in US dollars and euros, which has brought the renminbi's share of the Russian foreign exchange market to 99.6%. According to the calculation results of Bloomberg Economic Research, the current Russian-Chinese trade is almost entirely settled in RMB.

The renminbi appreciated yesterday, which is good for both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks. I looked at the 2.24% surge in Chinese stocks last night.

Affected by the expectation of US interest rate cuts, the yen appreciated strongly against the US dollar yesterday, and the yen soared by 2%. This is bad news for the Nikkei, because the appreciation of the yen is not conducive to the Japanese stock market. If nothing unexpected happens, the Nikkei will fall today, so friends who have Nikkei can stop profits in batches.

According to people familiar with the matter, the reason why the yen soared so sharply is that the Japanese government intervened in the foreign exchange market. Interestingly, the Japanese government is unwilling to disclose whether it has intervened in the foreign exchange market, and said that if intervention really occurs, the relevant departments will disclose it at the end of the month.