mertiger
07-15

$Trump 【Morning Must-Read】 This weekend, many major events happened both at home and abroad. Let's take a look at today's morning reading.

Last Friday, the three major U.S. stock indexes closed up collectively, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average hitting an intraday record high, closing above 40,000 points. However, these are not as good as the impact of Trump's assassination attempt.

Friends who have seen the video know that Trump's right ear was pierced by a bullet in this incident, and one centimeter away from the temple, which is equivalent to a direct headshot. Therefore, according to normal logic, it does not look like a self-directed and self-acted script. Let's talk about the impact on the market.

Previously, Trump has been ahead of Biden in national polls and swing state polls, and Biden's disastrous debate performance last month also favored Trump's election. After this assassination, Trump's advantage will be further expanded, and he seems to be just one step away from the position of president.

It is generally believed that Trump's support for loose fiscal policy and increased tariffs may benefit the US dollar and weaken U.S. Treasury bonds, while technology stocks and new energy stocks may be adversely affected because these are promoted by the Biden administration.

Bitcoin rose to over $60,000 after the incident, and I saw some U.S. stock market observers say that investors may favor traditional safe-haven assets, and the U.S. dollar may be boosted on Monday, along with other safe-haven assets such as the yen, Swiss franc and gold.

There is almost no precedent for this type of assassination attempt. Forty years ago, when U.S. President Ronald Reagan was assassinated, U.S. stocks fell before the close, but rose back the next day.

In the short term, the assassination is good for the U.S. dollar, and if Trump is elected and raises tariffs, this will certainly be bad for China's trade, which is bearish for the A-share market from the perspective of exchange rates and trade. 

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