2024下半年，TLT捲土重來？

儘管2024年已經過去了7個月，後疫情時代的全球大通脹已然降溫，然而衰退風險猶在，在市場全面押注美聯儲降息而美聯儲卻遲遲不降息。2024年 $20+年以上美國國債ETF-iShares(TLT)$ $3倍做多20年期以上國債ETF-Direxion(TMF)$ 從高位回落後全年保持低位運行，此時對我們而言是否是一個好的建倉TLT的機會？

債券 ETF 經歷了艱難的 2024 年。

在 2023 年 10 月債券歷史性熊市結束後，長期債券 ETF 在第四季度引領了價格上漲。根據 iShares 20+ 年期國債 ETF (TLT) 的衡量，預期債券基金價格上漲的投資者從 10 月低點到 12 月高點獲得了 22% 的回報。

但這就是債券反彈結束的地方，因爲 2024 年帶來了三份連續的消費者價格指數 (CPI) 報告，顯示通脹穩步上升，美聯儲此前預測的今年三次降息預期下降。

因此，從 2023 年年底的峯值來看，TLT 截至 4 月 11 日下跌了 8%，這是連續第三份通脹 CPI 報告發布的第二天。

在沒有衰退或軟着陸的情況下，現在是投資 TLT 的好時機嗎？

爲什麼要在 2024 年投資 TLT？

投資者可能出於幾個關鍵原因而被 TLT ETF 吸引，主要是因爲當利率最終下降時，它有可能獲得高回報，但也可以作爲對衝通脹、實現多元化以及高流動性的工具。以下是投資者選擇投資 TLT 的原因：

在利率下降的環境中獲得高回報的潛力

TLT 持有長期國債，這些債券對利率特別敏感。當利率下降時，長期債券的價格往往比期限較短的債券上漲更多。這是因爲與利率較低的新發行債券相比，投資者願意爲提供更高固定利率的現有債券支付更多費用。

對衝衰退

如果投資者認爲經濟衰退即將來臨，他們可能會購買 TLT，以從利率下降可能伴隨的價格上漲中獲益。在經濟低迷時期，美聯儲通常會大幅降息以刺激經濟。這將放大 TLT 的價格漲幅，因爲利率和收益率的下降幅度超過了適度通貨緊縮的環境。

多元化和流動性

多元化的一個主要方面是建立一個低相關性資產的投資組合，這就是投資者傾向於同時持有股票和債券的原因。在大多數市場環境中，股票和債券的組合將有助於最大限度地降低市場風險，同時平均長期回報率超過平均通脹率。

例如，隨着 2023 年市場復甦，TLT 在一年中的大部分時間裏都爲負值，而股票則強勁上漲。TLT 第四季度的收盤使其以略低於 3% 的漲幅結束了這一年，而股票在一年中上漲了 26%，以 SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) 衡量。

此外，TLT 是一隻規模龐大且流動性強的 ETF，投資者可以輕鬆買賣股票。TLT 的資產規模爲 478 億美元，是市場上第四大債券 ETF 和最大的長期債券基金。

2024 年持有 TLT 的風險

投資者應該記住，具有高增長潛力的 ETF 也具有高市場風險的可能性。以下是現在持有 TLT 的潛在缺點：

利率風險：2024 年 TLT 面臨的最大風險是利率風險，因爲債券市場繼續在“長期高利率”的利率環境中定價。如果利率上升，或者通脹數據繼續推高收益率，即使沒有加息，TLT 的價格也可能繼續下跌，就像 2024 年前三個月一樣。

當前收益率較低：雖然 TLT 具有資本增值的潛力，但與其他投資相比，長期國債的當前收益率可能並不十分有吸引力。TLT 的 30 天 SEC 收益率約爲 4.5%，短期 ETF 收益率高達 5%，利率風險較低，因此由於其創收特性，TLT 並不是理想的投資對象。

現在投資 TLT 的底線

投資者明智的做法是制定一個計劃來進入新的 ETF 頭寸，其中應該包括持有期。持有期越長，按平均成本法下跌並以較低價格購買股票就越有意義，預計通脹和利率最終會正常化。

投資者還應牢記 TLT 的利率敏感性。持續時間越長，利率下降時債券的價格升值幅度就越大，但情況恰恰相反。如果通貨緊縮趨勢在 2024 年中期恢復，耐心的 TLT 投資者將再次獲得價格升值的回報，就像 2023 年第四季度發生的那樣。

在不太可能出現衰退的情況下，今年晚些時候開始，領先的資產類別最有可能是債券，因爲股票價格和貨幣市場收益率會下降。這使得 TLT 成爲一個很好的衰退對衝和多元化工具。

但如果美聯儲不能實現軟着陸，這意味着通脹在一年中的大部分時間裏仍將保持較高水平，而投資者對降息的希望繼續破滅，TLT 的價格可能會繼續下跌。

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原文鏈接：TLT: Why Hold Long Bond ETFs in 2024?

Bond ETFs have had a rough 2024.

After a historic bear market for bonds ended in October of 2023, long-term bond ETFs led the charge in price appreciation in the fourth quarter. Investors expecting price appreciation in bond funds were rewarded with a 22% gain from the October low to the December high, as measured by the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT).

But that’s where the bond rally ended, as 2024 brought with it three consecutive Consumer Price Index (CPI) reports showing a steady increase in inflation and falling expectations for the three rate cuts the Federal Reserve had previously forecast for the year.

As a result, from its 2023 year-end peak, TLT fell 8% through April 11, a day after the third consecutive inflationary CPI report.

With no recession or soft landing in site, is now a good time to invest in TLT?

Why Invest in TLT in 2024?

Investors may be drawn to the TLT ETF for a few key reasons, primarily for its potential for high returns when interest rates finally fall, but also as a hedge against inflation, for diversification purposes, and for its high liquidity. Here are details on why investors may choose to invest in TLT:

Potential for High Returns in Falling Rate Environments

TLT holds long-term Treasury bonds, and these bonds are particularly sensitive to interest rates. When interest rates fall, the price of long-term bonds tends to rise more than bonds with shorter maturities. This is because investors are willing to pay more for existing bonds that offer a higher fixed interest rate compared to newly issued bonds with lower rates.

Hedge Against Recession

If investors believe a recession is coming, they may buy TLT to potentially benefit from the price increase that could accompany falling interest rates. During economic downturns, the Federal Reserve often cuts interest rates aggressively to stimulate the economy. This would amplify TLT’s price gains as rates and yields fall more than in a moderately disinflationary environment.

Diversification and Liquidity

A major aspect of diversification is building a portfolio of low correlation assets, which is why investors tend to hold stocks and bonds together. In most market environments and mix of stocks and bonds will help to minimize market risk while averaging long-term returns that outpace the average rate of inflation.

For example, as markets recovered in 2023, TLT was negative for most of the year, whereas stocks were strongly positive. TLT’s fourth quarter finish allowed it to end the year at just under 3% gain while stocks jumped 26% in the year, as measured by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY).

Furthermore, TLT is a large and liquid ETF, making it easy for investors to buy and sell shares. At $47.8 billion in assets, TLT is the fourth largest bond ETF on the market and the largest long bond fund.

Risks of Holding TLT in 2024

Investors are wise to remember that ETFs with potential for high growth are also associated with potential for high market risk. Here are potential drawbacks of holding TLT now:

Interest rate risk: The greatest risk facing TLT in 2024 is interest-rate risk as the bond market continues to price in “higher for longer” rate environment. If interest rates rise, or inflation data continue to push yields higher, even without a rate hike, the price of TLT can continue to fall as it did in the first three months of 2024.

Lower current yields: While TLT offers the potential for capital appreciation, the current yield on long-term Treasuries may not be very attractive compared to other investments. With a 30-day SEC yield of approximately 4.5%, and short-term ETFs yielding as much as 5% with less interest-rate risk, TLT is not an ideal investment to hold for its income-generating qualities.

Bottom Line on Investing in TLT Now

Investors are wise to enter new ETF positions with a plan, which should include a holding period. The longer the holding period, the more it can make sense to dollar-cost average down and buy shares at lower prices, anticipating an eventual normalization of inflation and interest rates.

Investors should also keep in mind TLT’s interest-rate sensitivity. The longer the duration, the greater the price appreciation for bonds when interest rates are falling, but the opposite is true. If the disinflationary trend resumes by mid-2024, patient TLT investors would be rewarded again with price appreciation as occurred in the fourth quarter of 2023.

In the unlikely scenario that a recession begins later this year, the leading asset class is most likely to be bonds as stock prices and money market yields would fall. This makes TLT a good recession hedge and diversification tool.

But if the Fed can’t engineer a soft landing, meaning inflation remains higher for most of the year and investor hopes of rate cuts continue to be dashed, TLT’s price would likely continue to fall.

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