High chance (2 of 3 scenarios) is a bounce but...............

Asphen
08-04


Scenario 1 - Outright further collapse to Fib 61.8 

Scenario 2 - A bounce to fill the gap and any rejection there (look for head and shoulder liquidity grabs) to drop it to Fib 61.8

Scenario 3 - Bounced higher to the last key liquidity levels (around 549 for SPY) before further down to Fib 61.8 again


Bigger Head and shoulder play out goes to about 519 (between Fib 61.8 and 78.6)


Bearish times ahead until bulls start to show themselves. Any counter rallies will be met by sell demand for now. 

Personally, trimming positions.

SPY Daily and Hourly Chart - 4 Aug 2024

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Comments

  • StompyNZ
    08-05
    StompyNZ
    My head and shoulders analysis predicts a fall to at least $522. I'm not buying any calls until that plays out or shows a strong reversal. If it breaks 520 I'm not touching it until 495 at least.
    • Asphen:Ā 
      v good call. am with u too. if buying calls, time is not ripe yet. tis will get ugly. bearish trend means rallies are met by sell demand.
  • Jayden Chong
    08-04
    Jayden Chong

    Great article, would you like to share it?

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