Brinker International: Sales Growth May Prove Transitory As Consumer Restaurant Spending Slows

Harrison Schwartz
08-15

Summary

  • The full-service dining industry was under profit margin and demand pressures before 2020 but has been dramatically exacerbated.
  • Brinker International may indirectly benefit from economic strains as it gains market share from closing independent restaurants and, more recently, competing chains.
  • That trend has resulted in same-store sales growth that I expect will prove transitory as slowing consumer demand spreads into the "middle-class" restaurant market.
  • Although Brinker's valuation is not excessive, it is relatively high if we assume a decline in revenue and potential margin pressures due to economic turbulence.
  • EAT's short interest level of 19% indicates ample negative speculation on the stock, which may not be warranted if economic conditions stabilize.

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One of the more exciting sectors to track since 2020 has been the full-service dining and fast-casual restaurant chains. In-person dining collapsed in 2020, leading to widespread failure of many restaurants and significant financial stress for virtually all in the industry. These businesses

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