$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$
Upside:
1/ EV adoption +20%-25% per yr
2/ EPS est trend likely to bottom 4Q
3/ Fed starts cutting int rates in Sept
4/ Higher FSD take rates/licensing deal
5/ $25K-$30K Compact launch FY’25
6/ Energy profits could 10x by 2030
7/ TSLA likely first to market with unsupervised generalized robotaxi FY’25
8/ Optimus production begins FY’26
Downside:
1/ Judge McCormick likely to again reject Elon’s 2018 comp plan; DE Supreme Court timing 2025
2/ Auto gross margins ex-reg credits may not have bottomed
3/ 10/10 robotaxi event unlikely to live up to its hype
4/ TSLA at highest P/E in two years
5/ Regulatory risk on FSD/Autonomy
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