$Apple(AAPL)$ For AI to raise

$Apple(AAPL)$ For AI to raise Apple's growth rate, you have to make the case that AI will

1. shorten the replacement cycle for iPhones, or

2. boost medium term growth of Mac or iPad sales, or

3. boost the growth of service revenue.

I don't see the case for any of these. Many AI services will be delivered in the cloud, like ChatGPT. And Apple's service revenue will come under increasing anti-trust scrutiny, because it leverages its duopoly position in phones to generate an unfair advantage in services like streaming TV, music, and photo storage.

Then there's the law of large numbers. Apple is simply too large to have a high annual compound growth rate.

The most likely scenario is that AAPL's stock price will flatline for a number of years while it grows revenue at a couple of percent per year, until its valuation multiple becomes more reasonable.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

We need your insight to fill this gap

Leave a comment

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":343204393545824,"tweetId":"343204393545824","gmtCreate":1724811789839,"gmtModify":1724811798338,"author":{"id":9000000000000733,"idStr":"9000000000000733","authorId":9000000000000733,"authorIdStr":"9000000000000733","name":"littlesweetie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43a0aed7518f515997f95ed495391d65","vip":8,"userType":8,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":215,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/842e94a96b7261ebff6a3f853ca0dd4b","width":"326","height":"534"}],"coverImages":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/842e94a96b7261ebff6a3f853ca0dd4b","width":"326","height":"534"}],"html":"<html><head></head><body> <a data-mention-id=\"AAPL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"Apple\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>For AI to raise Apple's growth rate, you have to make the case that AI will1. shorten the replacement cycle for iPhones, or2. boost medium term growth of Mac or iPad sales, or3. boost the growth of service revenue.I don't see the case for any of these. Many AI services will be delivered in the cloud, like ChatGPT. And Apple's service revenue will come under increasing anti-trust scrutiny, because it leverages its duopoly position in phones to generate an unfair advantage in services like streaming TV, music, and photo storage.Then there's the law of large numbers. Apple is simply too large to have a high annual compound growth rate.The most likely scenario is that AAPL's stock price will flatline for a number of years while it grows revenue at a couple of percent per year, until its valuation multiple becomes more reasonable.<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/842e94a96b7261ebff6a3f853ca0dd4b\" tg-width=\"326\" tg-height=\"534\"></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body> <a data-mention-id=\"AAPL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"Apple\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>For AI to raise Apple's growth rate, you have to make the case that AI will1. shorten the replacement cycle for iPhones, or2. boost medium term growth of Mac or iPad sales, or3. boost the growth of service revenue.I don't see the case for any of these. Many AI services will be delivered in the cloud, like ChatGPT. And Apple's service revenue will come under increasing anti-trust scrutiny, because it leverages its duopoly position in phones to generate an unfair advantage in services like streaming TV, music, and photo storage.Then there's the law of large numbers. Apple is simply too large to have a high annual compound growth rate.The most likely scenario is that AAPL's stock price will flatline for a number of years while it grows revenue at a couple of percent per year, until its valuation multiple becomes more reasonable.<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/842e94a96b7261ebff6a3f853ca0dd4b\" tg-width=\"326\" tg-height=\"534\"></body></html>","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$ For AI to raise Apple's growth rate, you have to make the case that AI will 1. shorten the replacement cycle for iPhones, or 2. boost medium term growth of Mac or iPad sales, or 3. boost the growth of service revenue. I don't see the case for any of these. Many AI services will be delivered in the cloud, like ChatGPT. And Apple's service revenue will come under increasing anti-trust scrutiny, because it leverages its duopoly position in phones to generate an unfair advantage in services like streaming TV, music, and photo storage. Then there's the law of large numbers. Apple is simply too large to have a high annual compound growth rate. The most likely scenario is that AAPL's stock price will flatline for a number of years while it grows revenue at a couple of percent per year, until its valuation multiple becomes more reasonable.","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/343204393545824","repostId":0,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":21,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":["AAPL"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":709,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/343204393545824"}