BABA's Strategic Rebound: Optimism Grows Amid New Plans and Challenges

$Alibaba(BABA)$ I'm going off memory of the conference call a few weeks ago, but I'm more optimistic than I have been for a long time. I still think management needs a lot work on their messaging, but they did at least articulate a strategy on the call...although it took the Q&A to coax some of it out of them and was a bit disjointed. Here's what i recall:

-Grow GMV in domestic ecommerce business and institute a 0.6% vendor fee when vendors reach a target level. If successful, i believe this might eventually add $3B to net income, so at a P/E of 10, $30B to valuation.

-Bring loss making businesses to break even as they come up to scale. International ecommerce drowns out the rest of the loss making businesses. This looks like it could add another $3B to net income, $30B to valuation. I find this one to be believable...revenue is growing like crazy so not hard to imagine that they are on a path to achieving scale.

-Cloud revenue is improving, growing, and it's profitability is now material. I believe they said double digit growth for Cloud. They seemed extremely optimistic that there was a lot of demand. This one seems to be finally on the right track.

Then there is stock connect effective the second week of September. This can only add to demand and put upward pressure on the share price.

Ant IPO has been quiet, but valuation thought to be at least $100B last I knew...Baba share $30B.

Baba has been taking its lumps lately, but seems to have more fight in it, rallying in subsequent days

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

We need your insight to fill this gap

Leave a comment

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":343962519138680,"tweetId":"343962519138680","gmtCreate":1724996703558,"gmtModify":1724996710352,"author":{"id":9000000000000204,"idStr":"9000000000000204","authorId":9000000000000204,"authorIdStr":"9000000000000204","name":"skippix","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/765c9daae36bd47c3c2192e4245c8d47","vip":8,"userType":8,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":69,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"BABA's Strategic Rebound: Optimism Grows Amid New Plans and Challenges","html":"<html><head></head><body><p> <a data-mention-id=\"BABA\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"Alibaba\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>I'm going off memory of the conference call a few weeks ago, but I'm more optimistic than I have been for a long time. I still think management needs a lot work on their messaging, but they did at least articulate a strategy on the call...although it took the Q&amp;A to coax some of it out of them and was a bit disjointed.  Here's what i recall:</p><p>-Grow GMV in domestic ecommerce business and institute a 0.6% vendor fee when vendors reach a target level.   If successful, i believe this might eventually add $3B to net income, so at a P/E of 10, $30B to valuation.</p><p>-Bring loss making businesses to break even as they come up to scale.   International ecommerce drowns out the rest of the loss making businesses.  This looks like it could add another $3B to net  income, $30B to valuation.   I find this one to be believable...revenue is growing like crazy so not hard to imagine that they are on a path to achieving scale.</p><p>-Cloud revenue is improving, growing, and it's profitability is now material.  I believe they said double digit growth for Cloud.  They seemed extremely optimistic that there was a lot of demand.  This one seems to be finally on the right track.</p><p>Then there is stock connect effective the second week of September. This can only add to demand and put upward pressure on the share price.</p><p>Ant IPO has been quiet, but valuation thought to be at least $100B last I knew...Baba share $30B.</p><p>Baba has been taking its lumps lately, but seems to have more fight in it, rallying in subsequent days</p><p></p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p> <a data-mention-id=\"BABA\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"Alibaba\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>I'm going off memory of the conference call a few weeks ago, but I'm more optimistic than I have been for a long time. I still think management needs a lot work on their messaging, but they did at least articulate a strategy on the call...although it took the Q&amp;A to coax some of it out of them and was a bit disjointed.  Here's what i recall:</p><p>-Grow GMV in domestic ecommerce business and institute a 0.6% vendor fee when vendors reach a target level.   If successful, i believe this might eventually add $3B to net income, so at a P/E of 10, $30B to valuation.</p><p>-Bring loss making businesses to break even as they come up to scale.   International ecommerce drowns out the rest of the loss making businesses.  This looks like it could add another $3B to net  income, $30B to valuation.   I find this one to be believable...revenue is growing like crazy so not hard to imagine that they are on a path to achieving scale.</p><p>-Cloud revenue is improving, growing, and it's profitability is now material.  I believe they said double digit growth for Cloud.  They seemed extremely optimistic that there was a lot of demand.  This one seems to be finally on the right track.</p><p>Then there is stock connect effective the second week of September. This can only add to demand and put upward pressure on the share price.</p><p>Ant IPO has been quiet, but valuation thought to be at least $100B last I knew...Baba share $30B.</p><p>Baba has been taking its lumps lately, but seems to have more fight in it, rallying in subsequent days</p><p></p></body></html>","text":"$Alibaba(BABA)$ I'm going off memory of the conference call a few weeks ago, but I'm more optimistic than I have been for a long time. I still think management needs a lot work on their messaging, but they did at least articulate a strategy on the call...although it took the Q&A to coax some of it out of them and was a bit disjointed. Here's what i recall: -Grow GMV in domestic ecommerce business and institute a 0.6% vendor fee when vendors reach a target level. If successful, i believe this might eventually add $3B to net income, so at a P/E of 10, $30B to valuation. -Bring loss making businesses to break even as they come up to scale. International ecommerce drowns out the rest of the loss making businesses. This looks like it could add another $3B to net income, $30B to valuation. I find this one to be believable...revenue is growing like crazy so not hard to imagine that they are on a path to achieving scale. -Cloud revenue is improving, growing, and it's profitability is now material. I believe they said double digit growth for Cloud. They seemed extremely optimistic that there was a lot of demand. This one seems to be finally on the right track. Then there is stock connect effective the second week of September. This can only add to demand and put upward pressure on the share price. Ant IPO has been quiet, but valuation thought to be at least $100B last I knew...Baba share $30B. Baba has been taking its lumps lately, but seems to have more fight in it, rallying in subsequent days","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/343962519138680","repostId":0,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":250,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":["BABA","09988"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1238,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/343962519138680"}