Time to sell NVDA?

$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ Is Nvidia a bad company? no probably not. Was a lot of the demand for high end GPU's at ridiculous margins likely severely overdone? Most definitely.

Nvidia announcing a lame buyback program that is equivalent to 1 year of their cashflow, while at ATH prices while Jensen is selling off shares, and while one of their largest customers is now under heavy scrutiny in my mind signals a turn in the market.

Without some groundbreaking new launch from an AI company like OpenAI to strengthen this bull market, I'm predicting a 20-30% short term downside in Nvidia through end of 2024, followed by a further correction in 2025 down to $30/share range.

Most interesting of all is the Fed's recent pivot on interest rate policy while inflation is still around 2.6% and proving sticky. They would not pivot without some kind of expectation about a downturn in the real economy/ jobs market.

just some food for thought. I have been consistently skeptical of the 'AI' trade since Feb 2023, which has obviously been a losing position. I was also skeptical of Crypto in 2021, especially of FTX and Solana which turned out to be 100% the right call.

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Was a lot of the demand for high end GPU's at ridiculous margins likely severely overdone? Most definitely. </p><p>Nvidia announcing a lame buyback program that is equivalent to 1 year of their cashflow, while at ATH prices while Jensen is selling off shares, and while one of their largest customers is now under heavy scrutiny in my mind signals a turn in the market. </p><p>Without some groundbreaking new launch from an AI company like OpenAI to strengthen this bull market, I'm predicting a 20-30% short term downside in Nvidia through end of 2024, followed by a further correction in 2025 down to $30/share range.</p><p>Most interesting of all is the Fed's recent pivot on interest rate policy while inflation is still around 2.6% and proving sticky. They would not pivot without some kind of expectation about a downturn in the real economy/ jobs market.</p><p>just some food for thought. I have been consistently skeptical of the 'AI' trade since Feb 2023, which has obviously been a losing position. I was also skeptical of Crypto in 2021, especially of FTX and Solana which turned out to be 100% the right call.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2faccc24251f8fa8a972f1fe1832a8a4\" tg-width=\"686\" tg-height=\"386\"></p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p> <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVIDIA Corp\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>Is Nvidia a bad company? no probably not. Was a lot of the demand for high end GPU's at ridiculous margins likely severely overdone? Most definitely. </p><p>Nvidia announcing a lame buyback program that is equivalent to 1 year of their cashflow, while at ATH prices while Jensen is selling off shares, and while one of their largest customers is now under heavy scrutiny in my mind signals a turn in the market. </p><p>Without some groundbreaking new launch from an AI company like OpenAI to strengthen this bull market, I'm predicting a 20-30% short term downside in Nvidia through end of 2024, followed by a further correction in 2025 down to $30/share range.</p><p>Most interesting of all is the Fed's recent pivot on interest rate policy while inflation is still around 2.6% and proving sticky. They would not pivot without some kind of expectation about a downturn in the real economy/ jobs market.</p><p>just some food for thought. I have been consistently skeptical of the 'AI' trade since Feb 2023, which has obviously been a losing position. I was also skeptical of Crypto in 2021, especially of FTX and Solana which turned out to be 100% the right call.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2faccc24251f8fa8a972f1fe1832a8a4\" tg-width=\"686\" tg-height=\"386\"></p></body></html>","text":"$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ Is Nvidia a bad company? no probably not. Was a lot of the demand for high end GPU's at ridiculous margins likely severely overdone? Most definitely. Nvidia announcing a lame buyback program that is equivalent to 1 year of their cashflow, while at ATH prices while Jensen is selling off shares, and while one of their largest customers is now under heavy scrutiny in my mind signals a turn in the market. Without some groundbreaking new launch from an AI company like OpenAI to strengthen this bull market, I'm predicting a 20-30% short term downside in Nvidia through end of 2024, followed by a further correction in 2025 down to $30/share range. Most interesting of all is the Fed's recent pivot on interest rate policy while inflation is still around 2.6% and proving sticky. They would not pivot without some kind of expectation about a downturn in the real economy/ jobs market. just some food for thought. I have been consistently skeptical of the 'AI' trade since Feb 2023, which has obviously been a losing position. 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