My Crystal Ball.
In my Tue, 03 Sep 2024 post, I mentioned that US Jobs reports will take centerstage this week. (click here ! to read about it, help to Repost ok - thanks).
And it turns out to be 100% true. To date, 3 of 5 jobs reports have been released.
They are:
Jobs opening & Labour turnover surveys (JOLTs) - Tue, 03 Sep. [Out]
US ADP employment report - Wed, 04 Sep. [Out]
US weekly jobless claims - Thu, 05 Sep. [Out]
Leaving the 2 most anticipated (*) reports out by Friday morning.
US Non-farm payroll - Fri, 06 Sep*.
US Unemployment report - Fri, 06 Sep*.
JOLTs July 2024.
US job market seems to be landing (finally) after what’s felt like the longest, bumpiest ride ever.
On Wed, 4 Sep 2024 - July’s data released by US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed there were 7.67 million jobs open at the end of July. (see below)
It was a decrease from June’s (7.91 million jobs); making it the lowest number of job openings in 3½ years since January 2021.
In short, July’s JOLT shows a “steadily cooling” labour market - down from the record-high turnover seen during the Great Resignation and is nearing pre-pandemic levels, once again.
ADP Payroll August 2024.
On a similar cooling note, the ADP payroll (US private sector payroll) reported its lowest jobs hired also in 3½ years. (see below)
Private payrolls increased by +99,000 jobs last month.
It missed economists’ forecast of 145,000 jobs by 31.72%.
And the smallest gain (12,000 jobs) since January 2021.
At the same time, June’s payroll data was also revised downwards to 111,000 jobs from preliminary 122,000 jobs.
It is a “loud” hint of
a sharp labour market slowdown.
A consolation is that wages kept rising, but at an easing pace than some of the earlier gains.
According to ADP, annual pay increased 4.8% for workers who stayed in their jobs, about the same level as July.
US Weekly Jobless claims.
Last of the labour report out is US weekly jobless claims for week ended 31 Aug 2024. (see below)
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped by 5,000 claims to a seasonally adjusted 227,000.
It is the lowest level since early July 2024.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 230,000 claims for the latest week.
Claims had been bouncing around the 230,000 level since pulling back from an 11-month high in late July (250,000 clams) as seasonal distortions (fr. automobile industry & Hurricane Beryl) faded.
US Non-Farm Payroll - August 2024 Forecast.
However, the most anticipated Jobs report is US Non-Farm payroll for August 2024.
Data from this report due out before trading beings will determine if US market ends the first week of September on a “high” or “low”. (see below)
Consensus forecast is August 2024 payrolls data will increase by 161,000, jobs.
This would be an increase of +47,000 jobs from July’s 114,000.
More important, unemployment rate is expected to tick down from July 2024’s 4.3%, to August’s 4.2%, though recent data could add some downside risk to the estimate.
Unfounded Fear.
The lingering concern about August’s Non Farm Payroll is that it might deviate from economists’ forecasts and more inline with August ADP report.
As I have mentioned in my 03 Aug 2024 post, there is a common upswing & down swing between ADP and Non-Farm payroll reports. (click here ! to refresh)
It is hoped that this fear is unfounded.
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Do you think August 2024 - Non Farm Payroll report will be as economists’ forecasts ?
Do you think US economy will slip into recession, given a “too cool” labour report?
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