Recently market has falls to its worst week in 2024. Investors are watching the yield curve inversing to positive rate. Each instances the yield curve inverted US economy falls into recession eventually and recent non farm payroll and unemployment rates beat expectation which expecting yield curve falls below negative territory but payroll for Jun and Jul data was revised to lower payroll results, pushing yield lower which resulted yield curve returning all time highs since 2022.
Investors are wary on the future of the US economy as yield curve may push the market lower. Although the current data have weaken it's nowhere near recessionary data, market may not have strength during this period. Market will shows strength once yield curve falls. Wednesday inflation data may be the key.
$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ maybe the investment for long term as federal reserve cutting interest rate will push bond prices higher. I'm currently bearish until yield curve falls with good data numbers.
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