A few fundamental elements that will dictate how hard the landing will be and reference always needs to reflect where the landing plateau will be. You certainly can't rely on just what the public media might be saying to you or government bodies for that matter, with Covid 19 being a prime example. 

Base data in regards to trend lines and parabolic curves of the past booms and recessions always need to be considered and the data should include a 50 year cycle so relativity of the economic nature of that date and time allowing a plus/minus risk assessment of recent events and other pivotal elements such as interest and inflation rates, residential building consents, unemployment statistics and the like as well as cyclical risks facing the population at that point in time i.e. what's the chances of a war, recent significant events (Covid) nternational trade relations, health status and a look at the overall population percentage in regards to age group catergorisation, mean income to house affordability ratios, natural resources demand and availability, manufacturing output, climate/volcanic activity, consumer debt vs average income, national incremental debt levels vs GDP, inflation/interest rates, share market level, commercial occupancy levels, along with the likelihood of serious disease transmission/pandemic risk etc.

If you then populate each of the data inputs with numbers relating to the available statistical data for each category and assess the more abstract coefficients like war and weather events etc with a risk weighting of 0 - 10 you can establish a very good estimate of how far the free fall or BASE jump is before the parabolic curve settles and then begins its upward cyclical trajectory again.

In our current situation, my overall analysis establishs that where we are currently standing is still sitting a fair way up the cliff face, plateauing on a level of delayed/manipulated data readings where what's being painted by the media as being reasonably good is in stark contrast to the reality of what is actually clearly obvious on the street.

In my opinion when you establish the overall risk factors then the level of equilibrium still has a ~25% to meet the baseline. However, given the rise in overall debt levels through Covid 19 (nothing untoward or planned in advance there by a populist was there?), wherein the parabolic curve was starting to trend down after reaching the peak of the natural market in mid/late 2018 (the measures put in place in regards to the financial markets to avert another GFC had actually worked😳) at a point where the boom level was slightly below the boom of the GFC. 

Point being, we only started seeing a small downward trend and were still far from reaching equilibrium in the scheme of natural parabolic curve lines on an "Overall Economic" basis. So effectively, we only went down slightly before the parabolic curve then went on another rampage to well above the levels previously seen with the GFC😷. Compounding this was the fact that this FALSE second boom was only brought about by the massive amounts of governmental debt funding that requires a significant longer period of time to correct.

Whilst in normal downward market cycles inflation tends to ease on the downward cycle as supply/demand levels easing, the war catalyst (great timing!) caused inflation to actually skyrocket which adds further pain and misery to the normal parabolic correction line.

So to conclude, the market will continue to run on an artificially inflated bubble for the meantime, but the when it does actually begin its downward trajectory it is very likely to freecall significantly, which when combined with obvious other factors of the possibility of war, disestablishment of the US$ being the global trading currency and numerous other risks that are higher than standard, things could become very very ugly - in real terms when fondling my crystal ball and if it's limited to global factors that aren't overly paralysing, we may see the possibility on the parabolic curve with reasonable momentum in 2030 - but hey, there will be a lot of fat to chew on between then and now so the best of British to ya all - choose wisely and fly high - gotta go 🚀🚀🚀