$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ TLT's average duration (sensitivity to interest rate changes) is 16.5, meaning that for every 1% decrease in interest rates the price of TLT should increase by 16.5%. We just got a 50bps cut, so TLT price should rise about 8%. It was about $100 yesterday and this morning, so a price of $108 would be very normal according to duration math. However, 25bps was probably baked into the price already, so let's call it a 4% price increase. TLT to $104. Today is just all the short term and day traders selling on every spike. They'll be gone in a day or two, and TLT will seek it's natural price level, about $104, over the coming weeks. Unless we start getting poor CPI and PCE reports. Increasing inflation hurts the price. On the other hand, should we go into a recession (and a few indicators suggest this has a good chance of happening), then TLT to $120 as everyone runs for a safe haven with a yield (not gold).