BND: Bonds Are Rising Again, But They Face 2 Key Risks

Summary

BND's short-term outlook is positive due to lower inflation expectations and a potential end to or reduction in QT activity.
Key bond risks include potential oil price spikes from geopolitical tensions and rising corporate credit risk during stock market crashes.
In the long term, BND is not ideal due to concerns about US government debt, which makes its debt unpayable without chronically elevated inflation.
I expect a repeat of 2020-2022 when inflation declined in the short term but was eventually pushed to a new high as the Federal Reserve overstimulated.
Speculators may take advantage of BND's current rally, but may not want to hold the ETF for too long.

NoDerog/E+ via Getty Images

The medium and long-term bond markets have reacted well to economic data indicating a slowdown. I've covered the popular bond ETF (NASDAQ:BND) for years, with a bearish outlook from 2020 onward, as I believed excessive government

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