Although some of Kamala Harris's policy proposals may benefit specific sectors in the U.S. stock market, such as cannabis-related stocks, overall, her economic policies are bearish for the broader U.S. stock market.
Below are some of Harris’s key policy proposals, which stand in stark contrast to Donald Trump’s:
1. Raising Corporate Taxes: Harris plans to raise the U.S. corporate tax rate to 28%, which would negatively impact most publicly traded U.S. companies by reducing corporate profits, lowering the potential for dividends and stock buybacks, and decreasing valuations.
2. Promoting Antitrust Measures: Harris appears to be even tougher on antitrust issues than the current administration, or at the very least, would continue the current administration’s antitrust agenda. This would negatively affect tech giants like Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Google, Amazon, and Meta, which have been major drivers of the U.S. stock market bull run. Google is already facing significant antitrust litigation pressure, with rumors circulating about a possible breakup. If it comes to that, it could lead to a stock price crash.
3. Tax on Unrealized Capital Gains: Harris proposes taxing unrealized capital gains for individuals with a net worth of over $100 million. Up to now, U.S. capital gains taxes are only levied when assets are sold, and they are exempt from taxes upon death. If unrealized gains in securities accounts are taxed, stock prices will struggle to rise significantly, as the wealthy would be taxed on their unrealized capital gains during price increases, potentially forcing them to sell stock to cover taxes. These individuals are often long-term holders of high-quality stocks. Taxing unrealized capital gains would place continuous selling pressure on blue-chip stocks.
4. Opposing Trade Barriers: Harris is against trade barriers and high tariffs. If the current U.S. tariffs are lowered, considering the high labor costs in the U.S., some domestic manufacturers will find it difficult to compete with low-cost goods from overseas.
5. Limited Policies to Reduce Unemployment: From the policies Harris has announced, there are few strong measures to significantly lower unemployment. With the continued influx of illegal immigrants into the U.S., the unemployment rate may rise, which could be interpreted by the market as a signal of an impending recession, creating a bearish outlook for the stock market.
6. Tesla's Risk: Due to Elon Musk's strong support for Trump and his attacks on Harris, if Harris is elected, there is a possibility of political retaliation against Musk, becoming a 'Sword of Damocles' hanging over Tesla investors.
Harris’s policy proposals are not merely a temporary bearish signal for the market, but they would have long-term, substantial negative effects.
Due to the increasing political polarization within the U.S., the probability of extreme events occurring during the election period is not low, which is likely to cause extreme short-term volatility in the stock market.
Political polarization in the United States is now more severe than it was in 2017.
Given the uncertainty of the election outcome, it is not advisable to take a blindly bullish stance on the market, where current P/E ratios are already high. It is important to mitigate risks and implement proper hedging strategies. However, for aggressive investors, the stock market's high volatility during the election period could present profit opportunities.
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