ASML: my take

$ASML Holding NV(ASML)$

From ASML earnings call, reason for lower guidance in 2025:

o Customers had inventory, so did not order and hence bookings were low.

o Two foundry customers have pushed out their plans on fab and that impacted ASML.

o Recovery in non-AI segments (Mobile, PC, Auto) not as quick as was expected

My Take

◾️Chinese customers had frontloaded orders/installation in prior Qs as they wanted to get ahead of stricter export restrictions

◾️The two customers that pushed out their plans are are Intel and Samsung

◾️Management is more conservative in guidance in two ways:

1. Management has included the impact of enhanced export controls which are not yet in place

2. If Chinese manufacturers can’t build chips, its share may be taken away by others who will still need ASML machines. While the downside risk from Chinese customers has been accounted, the upside risk of increase in demand from other players due to shift in market share has not been accounted

Other worry that investors have is how ASML might perform if the Generative AI tailwind is over.

So, I jumped in the time machine and got back to end of 2022. There I reviewed its performance for past 1, 3, 5, 10 and 15 years.

The business had done okay, even when Generative AI wasn't a thing.

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Management has included the impact of enhanced export controls which are not yet in place</p><p>2. If Chinese manufacturers can’t build chips, its share may be taken away by others who will still need ASML machines. While the downside risk from Chinese customers has been accounted, the upside risk of increase in demand from other players due to shift in market share has not been accounted</p><p>Other worry that investors have is how ASML might perform if the Generative AI tailwind is over. </p><p>So, I jumped in the time machine and got back to end of 2022. There I reviewed its performance for past 1, 3, 5, 10 and 15 years.  </p><p>The business had done okay, even when Generative AI wasn't a thing.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f49ea4e37cd48f767d6671b4b58c3686\" tg-width=\"589\" tg-height=\"454\"></p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p> <a data-mention-id=\"ASML\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"ASML Holding NV\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/ASML\">$ASML Holding NV(ASML)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v></p><p>From ASML earnings call, reason for lower guidance in 2025:</p><p>o Customers had inventory, so did not order and hence bookings were low. </p><p>o Two foundry customers have pushed out their plans on fab and that impacted ASML.</p><p>o Recovery in non-AI segments (Mobile, PC, Auto) not as quick as was expected</p><p>My Take </p><p>◾️Chinese customers had frontloaded orders/installation in prior Qs as they wanted to get ahead of stricter export restrictions</p><p>◾️The two customers that pushed out their plans are are Intel and Samsung</p><p>◾️Management is more conservative in guidance in two ways:</p><p>1. Management has included the impact of enhanced export controls which are not yet in place</p><p>2. If Chinese manufacturers can’t build chips, its share may be taken away by others who will still need ASML machines. While the downside risk from Chinese customers has been accounted, the upside risk of increase in demand from other players due to shift in market share has not been accounted</p><p>Other worry that investors have is how ASML might perform if the Generative AI tailwind is over. </p><p>So, I jumped in the time machine and got back to end of 2022. There I reviewed its performance for past 1, 3, 5, 10 and 15 years.  </p><p>The business had done okay, even when Generative AI wasn't a thing.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f49ea4e37cd48f767d6671b4b58c3686\" tg-width=\"589\" tg-height=\"454\"></p></body></html>","text":"$ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ From ASML earnings call, reason for lower guidance in 2025: o Customers had inventory, so did not order and hence bookings were low. o Two foundry customers have pushed out their plans on fab and that impacted ASML. o Recovery in non-AI segments (Mobile, PC, Auto) not as quick as was expected My Take ◾️Chinese customers had frontloaded orders/installation in prior Qs as they wanted to get ahead of stricter export restrictions ◾️The two customers that pushed out their plans are are Intel and Samsung ◾️Management is more conservative in guidance in two ways: 1. Management has included the impact of enhanced export controls which are not yet in place 2. If Chinese manufacturers can’t build chips, its share may be taken away by others who will still need ASML machines. While the downside risk from Chinese customers has been accounted, the upside risk of increase in demand from other players due to shift in market share has not been accounted Other worry that investors have is how ASML might perform if the Generative AI tailwind is over. So, I jumped in the time machine and got back to end of 2022. There I reviewed its performance for past 1, 3, 5, 10 and 15 years. 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