$Lam Research(LRCX)$
The market dips today as investors take in the House Sales Numbers for September, making the same mistake as they did previously when they overreact to single data point again, hence triggering stop-losses for multiple hedge funds portfolio.
Looking at the start of the earnings quarter, the report is mixed across companies and unlikely to see consistent performance in a sector other than banking sector. The overreaction to the house sales shows that consumers might still be holding back on big purchases, but mortgages are a different issue and is a beast of it's own. Investors seem to misread the situation here.
Tesla's upcoming sales can provide some early insights. However, we caution that it is not indicative of the whole economy. It would still be good to use it to gauge whether consumers are holding off big item purchases until more rate cuts.
Investors are concerned that there will be a skip in rate cut and is selling off in anticipation of that. But the broad market selloff today is overbroad and overdone. Early earnings calls have shown that results aren't symmetrical in any given sector. Coca Cola performance doesn't imply overall economy especially since there has been a deterioration in brand image like McDonald.
However, we do anticipate a good earning season if not better than the previous. As the previous earning season has shown, the consumer spending is still strong.
Today's dip will cause investors remorse later especially when met with earnings surprises. This dip is also good as it lowers any unrealistic expectations, hence increasing the odd of a strong rally towards the end of years . This is a good entry for upcoming earning surprises.
Comments