$Amazon.com(AMZN)$ is set to release its Q3 2024 earnings on October 31, with revenue expected to grow by 11% to $157.16 billion, and earnings per share projected to rise by 32% to $1.14.
So far, Amazon's performance this year has matched the $.SPX(.SPX)$ and $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ . However, given its revenue and profit growth prospects, and its relatively attractive valuation compared to other members of the "Mag 7," Amazon’s stock could outperform next year. With AWS and advertising as key growth drivers, the stock has about 25% upside from current levels.
AWS Momentum: A Key Growth Driver
AWS’s growth momentum looks set to continue. Last quarter, after seven consecutive quarters of deceleration (as customers cut costs), AWS saw its third straight quarter of recovery.
Growth accelerated by 200 basis points to 19%, outpacing Google $Alphabet(GOOG)$ Cloud's 100 basis point rise to 29%, while Microsoft $Microsoft(MSFT)$ Azure slowed by 100 basis points to 29%. Notably, AWS’s revenue base is larger, at $26.3 billion, accounting for 18% of total revenue with an operating margin of 36%.
Additionally, Synergy Research Group estimates that global cloud infrastructure spending grew 22% year-over-year to $79 billion in Q2, with Amazon holding a 32% market share, compared to 23% for Azure and 12% for Google Cloud.
Amazon CEO Andy Jassy highlighted three key AWS growth drivers in a recent earnings call:
Most companies have completed cost optimization and are refocusing on new projects.
Businesses are once again investing in infrastructure modernization and migrating to the cloud.
Developers and companies of all sizes are excited about leveraging AI.
AI Innovations: A Competitive Edge for AWS
Amazon’s AI stack is showing strong product innovation. The company is developing custom machine learning chips for the infrastructure layer, providing customers with options while offering "LLM-as-a-Service" through its Bedrock platform. This enables companies to build generative AI applications using models like Anthropic's Claude 3.5 and Meta's LLaMA 3.1.
At the application layer, Amazon introduced its own AI assistant, Amazon Q, which Jassy called a "game-changer." With the largest market share among hyperscalers, Amazon stands to benefit from increased adoption, driven by its wide capabilities, excellent security, operational performance, and deep partner ecosystem.
Ads and Prime Video: A Rising Star
Prime Video will be a catalyst for ad revenue growth. Management has emphasized that they are just at the "beginning of video ad potential." Amazon’s closed ecosystem, coupled with rich purchasing data and high-intent audiences, provides exceptional returns on ad spend. This positions Amazon to capture more ad dollars in the future.
Both of Amazon’s key growth engines—ads and AWS—are expected to scale further, making up a larger share of total revenue, ultimately boosting profitability.
Investments in Prime Video will continue expanding its content catalog, increasing U.S. TV market share, and drawing more ad dollars, while AWS should see continued momentum as more enterprises shift workloads to the cloud and harness generative AI’s potential.
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