@Dumplinggogh , Thanks for your question. AGNC has faced some significant challenges, but it’s showing signs of positive momentum that may help it approach “glory days” in the future, even if it won’t be an instant turnaround. Here’s a closer look: Stabilizing MBS Prices: Over recent quarters, mortgage-backed securities (MBS) prices have stabilized, trading within a tighter range after a long period of volatility. While they haven’t fully recovered, the stabilization has allowed AGNC’s book value to climb by 5% this past quarter, even though it saw some decline in October. Leverage and Swaps: AGNC’s reliance on swaps for higher earnings has adjusted, with many of its low-interest swaps maturing in Q3. This affected net spread and dollar roll income but was expected as part of AGNC’s plan. Now, with fewer swaps maturing until mid-2025, AGNC’s cash flow is likely to be more stable for the next couple of quarters. Earnings Potential with Lower Rates: AGNC’s portfolio could greatly benefit if the Fed cuts rates, as a lower cost of debt will improve earnings. Management has decreased its hedge ratio, meaning 28% of its debt costs will drop in line with Fed cuts. This sets AGNC up to benefit more from a future rate-cut environment. Portfolio Growth: AGNC has used its premium-to-book valuation to raise equity, adding $8.3 billion to its MBS holdings. The current 16–18% expected ROE is promising, showing potential for the dividend to remain stable—or even rise as it did for peers like Dynex Capital. So, while AGNC may not return to its historical highs overnight, improving fundamentals and the potential for rate cuts give it a strong chance to perform well in the long term. The timing will depend on interest rate trends, but AGNC is positioned to benefit once the Fed eases more.
I hope this finds you well.
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