ADR%: Examining Trend-Following vs. Range-Expansive Move Behavior

I received an overwhelming response and numerous DMs (apologies if my replies are delayed, as I’m working to respond to each message constructively) across platforms, including LinkedIn and IG, about my recent post on the top 100 performing stocks (YTD basis), which included a breakdown of some simple key data. I also expanded the data for everyone's deep dive by sharing the full list of the top 100 % gainers from each year since 2018 without filter.

I wish to use this post to clarify in case anyone misinterprets how to apply the ADR% filter in their screening criteria.

Here’s an overlay of the historical ADR% indicator highlighting two types of +70% upward moves within the same quarter. I’ve selected four stocks with varying prices, share structures, sector/group, floats, and trading volumes.

$Brinker(EAT)$ $GE Vernova Inc.(GEV)$ shows a trend-following, yet volatility-compressive move (ADR% compression) during its +70% run, similar to $CAVA Group Inc.(CAVA)$ and $AppLovin Corporation(APP)$ , which also demonstrated volatility compression.

EAT - Restaurants

- Market Cap: $4.4B

- Share Float: 43M

- Average $ Volume (50D): $135M

- Average Share Volume (50D): 1.3M

- ADR%: 3.1%

- Time to +70%: 45 trading days

GEV - Electronics Products

- Market Cap: $83B

- Share Float: 274M

- Average $ Volume (50D): $843M

- Average Share Volume (50D): 2.8M

- ADR%: 2.99%

- Time to +70%: 56 trading days

$Oklo Inc.(OKLO)$ and $TeraWulf Inc.(WULF)$ exhibit a broad, range-expansive price movement, with high ADR% volatility throughout their upward trajectory. Very much like short term momentum burst advocated by PradeepBonde

OKLO - Sector: Industrial Machinery

- Market Cap: $2.6B

- Share Float: 69M

- Average $ Volume (50D): $276M

- Average Share Volume (50D): 12M

- ADR%: 18%

- Time to +70%: 4 trading days

WULF - Sector: Data Processing Services

- Market Cap: $2.3B

- Share Float: 274M

- Average $ Volume (50D): $138M

- Average Share Volume (50D): 22M

- ADR%: 10%

- Time to +70%: 8-10 trading days

This comparison could provide valuable insights into the type of trading you may want to prioritize, allowing you to optimize your screener to align better with your trading style. Additionally different execution parameters and rule, exit or profit-taking strategies may be necessary to adapt to the distinct price movement patterns shown here.

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