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11-14 00:57

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@Barcode：$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ 🌐📉🌐 Will CPI Reboost or Rattle the Market? 🌐📉🌐 Kia ora Tiger traders! The much-anticipated U.S. October CPI report is dropping soon, and all eyes are on how it will shape the markets. Last week, the S&P 500 touched 6017, only to pull back, leaving everyone wondering if this CPI data could light the fire for another rally—or accelerate the downturn. Let’s dive into the weeds, shall we? What’s Expected? The headline CPI is projected to edge up from 2.4% to 2.6%, with core CPI steady at 3.3%. On the surface, this seems like a mixed bag, but let’s break down why it’s worth watching closely: 1. Sticky Shelter Costs: Shelter remains the heavyweight in CPI, making up around 40% of the index. Yet, its importance fades in the Core PCE, where it’s just 18%. The shelter component is finally showing signs of cooling, but recent hurricanes have pushed up short-term rental and hotel costs, creating a temporary bump. A tricky balance! 2. Used Cars & Temporary Spikes: A major driver in this month’s data is the used car index, along with weather-impacted hotel prices. Economists expect a 0.3% month-over-month rise, but this could be a temporary uptick in the bigger picture. Powell hinted that inflation is on track towards the Fed’s target, yet he’s aware of these ‘bumps’ along the way. 3. Rate Cut Dance: The Fed Funds Tracker’s probability for a December rate cut slid from 77% to 62%, which could drop further if the CPI sparks hawkish sentiment. Powell has likened rate cuts to a plane landing—gradual and bumpy. So even if the hawks get their temporary way, the Fed still has the room (and motivation) to ease up in December. With interest payments on U.S. debt piling up, the Fed can’t afford to keep rates sky-high indefinitely. 🍇 The $SPY Setup Post-CPI As we zoom into $SPY’s technicals, it’s sitting precariously at a critical support level of $594.30—the gold line. This level is key; a drop below could fuel a deeper pullback, but holding steady might spark optimism. With markets hovering near peak valuations, every bounce looks like an opportunity for profit-taking, especially as traders await Nvidia’s earnings, which could shake things up even further. 🚨 Profit-Taking Alert: Up here in the corner, $SPY is looking slightly overpriced, and the savvy move might be to bank profits on any CPI-driven spikes. It’s a little dicey up here, and as we move towards Nvidia’s report, volatility could be lurking around the corner. The Big Picture Even if inflation shows a slight uptick, the Fed’s overall stance seems clear—gradual easing is in sight, even if the market has to ride through some temporary turbulence. So, should the CPI come in as expected, we might see a quick sell-off by inflation hawks, but the market could soon bounce back as Powell’s “plane” continues its descent. With all this in mind, the question remains: will the CPI numbers tonight ignite a reboost or just add another twist to this volatile market story? Either way, keep your seatbelts on; it’s going to be a wild ride for $SPY and the broader market! Happy trading ahead. Cheers, BC 🍀🍀🍀
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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