ASTS’s recent surge does not yet indicate a shift to a Bullish zone

$AST SpaceMobile, Inc.(ASTS)$

📉 Long-Term Strategy

ASTS is currently in a Bearish trend zone, where a Sell and Observe position is suggested. Key factors include:

• Trend Breakdown:

  • Downtrend: Consistent downward movement with brief upward spikes.

  • Rebound Trend: Limited upward moves within an overall decline.

• Investment Position:

  • In the Bearish zone, strong selling pressure often prevails, potentially leading to further price declines.

  • A medium- to long-term position benefits from observing market conditions after selling, with a future Buy decision recommended if a shift to a Bullish zone occurs.

• Position Status:

  • Entry Price: 25.1 (Oct 24, 2024)

  • Current Price: 27.9

  • Difference: +2.8 (11.2% gain in 14 days)

📈 Short-Term Strategy

Despite currently being Bearish, ASTS is showing signs of shifting to a Bullish zone:

• Rebound Trend: A box pattern of price fluctuations, with buying intensity strengthening, suggests temporary upward movement.

• Selling Opportunity: Suggested timeframe for selling is Nov 15–18 with a target price of 28.8.

• Buying Opportunity: Predicted for Nov 22–25 at a potential price of 23.7.

🌐 Market Correlation

ASTS has a 65% correlation with the US Stock Market Average Index, meaning it generally follows market trends but has a 35% probability of moving independently, sometimes in the opposite direction.

• Volatility of Prediction: High, due to sudden shifts in Buy-Sell intensity.

• Potential Trend Reversal: Likely in approximately 3 days and again around 9 days.

🔍 Expected Trend Movement & Intensity

• 10-Day Price Range: 24.4 – 28.4

  • Median Price: 26.4, representing an anticipated -5.3% change.

• Expected Trend Zone for the Next 10 Days:

  • Zone: Projected to remain Bearish with an average level of -24%.

  • Intensity: Moderate upward intensity of 25%, with stronger downward movements expected at around -54%.

💡 Summary

ASTS’s recent surge does not yet indicate a shift to a Bullish zone. Maintaining a Sell and Observe position is prudent for long-term investors, as downside risk still exists. Short-term traders may look to sell between Nov 15–18 at approximately 28.8 and could re-evaluate a buying position around Nov 22–25. Given ASTS’s weaker alignment with the US market, its movement may diverge based on independent market factors.