Max87
11-15

$Alibaba(BABA)$  after going through the webcast, judging from available info without analyzing further the statements, this quarter is a confirmation that Baba is no longer growing it's most profitable core segment that has been the growth + cash cow. Digital commerce supposedly grew ~16% & Baba grew 1.4% (GMV not reported) while JD grew 5.1%. Baba will grow & fall together with it's merchants however it seems like merchants were undercut by PDD & Shared with JD Kuaishou & Bytedance. Moving forward, Baba will have to depend on growth from yet to be profitable business, eg. AIDC, CLOUD AI. however both business is an ant compare to their core e-commerce rev & profit margins. Also not profitable yet. Unless they disclose further info on GMV. or else, this might mark Baba's peak in profitability & rev while waiting for other segments to grow to replace the core e commerce profits. We're looking at the fall of once dominant internet player in China. #endofbaba #nvroffendXi #Xiconomics

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Comments

  • Max87
    11-16
    Max87
    Amendments: after looking at the press release, realized I missed the gmv part & growth in purchasers part; however not very enthused with the increase in order volume with smaller value per order. but rather encouraged by the increase in VIP Members. If say we're still in the game; change my view from outright poor to neutral;
    • Max87ReplygogoooCn: 
      it's not an entirely gone case as per latest earnings. Depending on your time horizon & your average cost price, there are ways to play it. Anyway, possible booster :
      a) Ant Grp listing
      b) Cloud & AI growth - their affiliates comp. are no longer suppressed by Ch. gov.
      c) M&A xiaohongshu (wishful)
    • gogoooCn: 

      thank u for sharing bro. Very useful. I’m holding baba, too

  • gogoooCn
    11-20
    gogoooCn

    Alas… what to do with my long positions?

    • Max87ReplyMax87: 
      disclaimer : These ideas require some work to be done ya. don't go swim naked.
    • Max87: 
      if average price below $150, can try selling calls. however, you need to be prepared to see the price goes up without being able to take part in it. or a equally good option is to sell puts at a conservative price. Both will allow you to gain some form of cf while holding.

      My fav, is still avg down

  • Max87
    11-15
    Max87
    sorry correction #dreamscometruejustnotwithXi
  • Max87
    11-15
    Max87
    I've got one more, #dreamsdocometruejustwithXi
  • Max87
    11-15
    Max87
    #XiTheUltimate$$Destroyer
  • Max87
    11-15
    Max87
    #Xixixixixi #Xiisking #CommonPoverty
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