Xpeng (XPEV) Lower Guidance For Next Quarter Might Be Expected

$XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$ is expected to report its quarterly earnings for period ending 30 September 2024 on 19 Nov 2024 before the market open.

XPEV is expected to show an increase in its quarterly revenue mainly due to a significant increase in the deliveries for the third quarter. Revenue is expected to see a 14.5% increase in revenue to CNY 9.769 billion from CNY 8.53 billion a year ago.

This is near the high side of the guidance that was given for period ending 30 Sep 2024 on 20 Aug 2024 which estimated revenue to come in between CNY 9.10 billion and CNY 9.80 billion.

Earnings per share for XPEV is expected to come in at a loss of CNY1.71 per share or 29 cents.

Xpeng (XPEV) Registrations In China Declining -> Worrying Signs?

XPEV insurance registrations decreased 3.57 percent to 5,400 vehicles for week ending 03 Nov, compared to 5,600 in the previous week, ending a three-week streak of sequential gains. It delivered 23,917 vehicles in October, up 19.57 percent from 20,002 a year ago and up 12.01 percent from 21,352 in September.

In the January-October period, Xpeng delivered 122,478 vehicles, up 20.73 percent year-on-year.

The company will officially launch the P7+ on November 7, and the new electric sedan began pre-sales in China on October 14 with a starting price of RMB 209,800 yuan.

Will this reducing registration for Oct and November going to see XPEV reducing their guidance lower for the fourth quarter of 2024?

Third Quarter Delivery Exceeded Upper Guidance Range

During the third quarter, Xpeng delivered 46,533 vehicles, exceeding the upper end of its guidance range of 41,000 to 45,000 units.

Deliveries for the quarter were up 16.31 percent year-on-year and up 54.05 percent from the second quarter. Xpeng guided third-quarter revenue to be in the range of RMB 9.1 billion ($1.27 billion) to RMB 9.8 billion when it announced its second-quarter results on 20 Aug 2024 up about 6.7 percent to 14.9 percent year-on-year.

This should give confidence that we can expect an increase in the revenue from XPEV for the third quarter.

Technical Analysis - MACD and Multi-timeframe (MTF)

XPEV have been trading above the short-term and long-term MA period but MACD is showing signs of downside movement coming, this could be due to the lower deliveries and registrations for the recent weeks, this might signal that demand for XPEV would not be as strong as the previous quarter.

Third quarter might still see a positively high revenue but at a loss, but not as good as second quarter, but the next quarter we might expect to see lower revenue and bigger loss.

So XPEV might lower their guidance for the next quarter, and this could cause the stock price to go for a correction or consolidation post earnings, and MTF is also not giving any clear signal of upside or downside.

Summary

I would think XPEV stock price might still trade lower despite better revenue, but a loss would be expected on the EPS. What we need to look out for is the guidance for future deliveries, there might be a reduction, and this might cause some investors to profit take.

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think XPEV would release a lower outlook guidance that might cause its stock price to consolidate or adjust.

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.