Replying to @Dumplinggogh:Hi,

Replying to @Dumplinggogh:Hi, tks for reading my post and sharing your view. One thing I noticed about the US market is that there are seasons... The season for EVs is over. It is difficult to generate interest not unless there is breakout earnings then attention will be diverted back to it. I am still sitting on Nio's paper losses too, just hanging in there 'unwillingly' i supposed.//@Dumplinggogh:This co is a flop and I was fooled into investing in it at its high.

@JC888：Can NIO surge to $10 ? How soon ?

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One thing I noticed about the US market is that there are seasons... The season for EVs is over. It is difficult to generate interest not unless there is breakout earnings then attention will be diverted back to it.&nbsp; I am still sitting on Nio's paper losses too, just hanging in there 'unwillingly' i supposed.//<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/4088555865224950\">@Dumplinggogh</a>:This co is a flop and I was fooled into investing in it at its high.</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Replying to <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/4088555865224950\">@Dumplinggogh</a>:Hi, tks for reading my post and sharing your view. One thing I noticed about the US market is that there are seasons... The season for EVs is over. It is difficult to generate interest not unless there is breakout earnings then attention will be diverted back to it.&nbsp; I am still sitting on Nio's paper losses too, just hanging in there 'unwillingly' i supposed.//<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/4088555865224950\">@Dumplinggogh</a>:This co is a flop and I was fooled into investing in it at its high.</body></html>","text":"Replying to @Dumplinggogh:Hi, tks for reading my post and sharing your view. One thing I noticed about the US market is that there are seasons... The season for EVs is over. It is difficult to generate interest not unless there is breakout earnings then attention will be diverted back to it. I am still sitting on Nio's paper losses too, just hanging in there 'unwillingly' i supposed.//@Dumplinggogh:This co is a flop and I was fooled into investing in it at its high.","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/373801923154064","repostId":373070818918696,"repostType":1,"repost":{"magic":2,"id":373070818918696,"tweetId":"373070818918696","gmtCreate":1732111211317,"gmtModify":1732270202174,"author":{"id":3570103090255456,"idStr":"3570103090255456","authorId":3570103090255456,"authorIdStr":"3570103090255456","name":"JC888","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f3e3c0218599fca5c4e265ddbee1fb32","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"9427a906234c4b18a82ec3d7730b7fa8-1","templateUuid":"9427a906234c4b18a82ec3d7730b7fa8","name":"Star Contributor","description":"Have published 3 or more picked posts, and have published at least one picked post and participated in comments within 30 days","bigImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1866dcf97a73be1c330f85862546aedc","smallImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4f5c5fa8e2c7683bb5a7fce8753ee456","redirectLinkEnabled":1,"redirectLink":"https://ttm.financial/activity/market/2023/star-contributors/","hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.08.31","individualDisplayEnabled":0},"individualDisplayBadges":[{"badgeId":"9427a906234c4b18a82ec3d7730b7fa8-1","templateUuid":"9427a906234c4b18a82ec3d7730b7fa8","name":"Star Contributor","description":"Have published 3 or more picked posts, and have published at least one picked post and participated in comments within 30 days","bigImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1866dcf97a73be1c330f85862546aedc","smallImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4f5c5fa8e2c7683bb5a7fce8753ee456","redirectLinkEnabled":1,"redirectLink":"https://ttm.financial/activity/market/2023/star-contributors/","hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.11.23","individualDisplayEnabled":1,"backgroundColor":{"dark":"#675a37","tint":"#f9ebc2"},"fontColor":{"dark":"#ffffff","tint":"#ab7a0e"}}],"fanSize":8240,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[{"themeId":"470d3ab575ca43caaed8156645b7ccbe","categoryId":"ab3d937a5fd848c08008411a9be702b5","name":"💰 Stocks to watch today?(22 Nov)","type":0,"rnLink":"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNTheme&page=/theme/detail&rndata={\"themeId\":470d3ab575ca43caaed8156645b7ccbe}&rnconfig={\"headerBarHidden\": true}","description":"1. What news/movements are worth noting in the market today? Any stocks to watch? \n2. What trading opportunities are there? Do you have any plans?\n🎁 Make a post here, everyone stands a chance to win Tiger coins!","image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd8eaff2e99964ab7a80d92cc196fcd3"}],"images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d3a7858494c38e4b6d423c6c7cee8087","width":"947","height":"487"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8934da78de1227212b60f49460d85f17","width":"714","height":"137"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1ca6e10e87b393b3de3ace87982f39c6","width":"600","height":"200"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a1e850a680d628b3be32451be4cd3174","width":"891","height":"166"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9d571a9e3ede9c5e18f3402b8ade2cbf","width":"623","height":"247"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0eaee3ef30c972fc4b93852067d00dbd","width":"785","height":"430"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7dbe0aae1d9996f3e3bb681adf39ede5","width":"619","height":"133"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e3cfb2c49709577df30a69ffeb929a50","width":"722","height":"76"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a66224275e175394f5d9a8c214d01687","width":"680","height":"102"}],"coverImages":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d3a7858494c38e4b6d423c6c7cee8087","width":"947","height":"487"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8934da78de1227212b60f49460d85f17","width":"714","height":"137"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1ca6e10e87b393b3de3ace87982f39c6","width":"600","height":"200"}],"title":"Can NIO surge to $10 ? How soon ?","html":"<html><head></head><body><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d3a7858494c38e4b6d423c6c7cee8087\" tg-width=\"947\" tg-height=\"487\">\n<h2>Total Eclipse.</h2>\nIt has been a while since I last posted on NIO.\nThis Chinese EV maker is due to release its earnings report card today before US market trading begins, I thought I share a post on them.\nIf not, NIO’s spotlight will be ‘stolen’ and eclipsed by <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$</a> quarterly earnings that have already been hogging the limelight for the past few days and into Wednesday evening (US time).\n<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8934da78de1227212b60f49460d85f17\" tg-width=\"714\" tg-height=\"137\">\n<h2>Stock Take.</h2>\nFor October 2024, Chinese luxury electric vehicle maker <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a> stock reported deliveries of 20,976 vehicles; that is roughly flat versus September.\nComparatively speaking, Nio’s deliveries has been up +30% YoY.\nDeliveries for the first 10 months of 2024 came in at 170,257 vehicles. This is up +35% YoY.\nNio’s delivery performance was better than rivals ie. for instance <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/XPEV\">$XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$</a> delivered 23,917 vehicles for October 2024, up +20% compared to last year.\nXpeng’s total YTD sales for the first 10 months of 2024 stood at about 122,500 units, a +21% increase from the same period last year.\nIn comparison, <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/LI\">$Li Auto(LI)$</a>, the largest of the emerging EV players in China, it delivered 51,443 vehicles in October 2024. This is up +27.3% YoY.\n<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1ca6e10e87b393b3de3ace87982f39c6\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"200\">\n<h2>NIO’s catalysts.</h2>\n(1) Onvo.\nGrowth for Nio was driven largely by its value-priced Onvo brand, that sold a total of 4,319 vehicle units for the month.\nThe brand’s first vehicle, the Onvo L60, was launched in September 2024 and is priced between RMB 200,000 (USD28,000) and RMB 300,000 (USD42,000).\nNio operates a total of over 166 retail centers for the Onvo brand and also gives users access to 584 Nio battery swapping stations in China.\nSales are expected to scale up further as production trends higher.\n(2) Firefly. (coming end 2024)\nNio is also preparing to launch another brand called Firefly by the end of the year.\nFirefly’s first model, which will be a mix of small and compact SUV designs, will likely target even lower price points, expanding Nio’s presence further downmarket.\nNotably, NIO stock has performed worse than the broader market in each of the last 3 years.\nReturns for the stock were:\n<ul>\n <li>\n -35% in 2021.</li>\n <li>\n -69% in 2022.</li>\n <li>\n -7% in 2023.</li>\n</ul>\nGiven the current uncertain (a) new incoming president, (b) macroeconomic environment around rate cuts and (c) multiple wars — could NIO face a similar situation as it did in 2021, 2022, and 2023 and underperform the S&amp;P over the next 12 months.\n<blockquote>\n Will it see a recovery?\n</blockquote>\n<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a1e850a680d628b3be32451be4cd3174\" tg-width=\"891\" tg-height=\"166\">\n(1) Valuation.\n<ul>\n <li>\n Nio’s valuation is attractive.</li>\n <li>\n The stock trades at about $5 per share.</li>\n <li>\n That is about 1x consensus 2024 revenues, which is not expensive.</li>\n <li>\n Taking into considering that revenues are projected to grow by over +20% this year and by over +35% next year.</li>\n <li>\n If Nio continues this pace of growth, investors could potentially re-rate the stock higher, assigning it a higher multiple of over 2x, more in line with its Chinese peer Xpeng.</li>\n</ul>\nIn contrast, <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a> trades at about 7x forward revenue, even though revenues are likely to remain almost flat this year.\n(2) Stimulus.\nThe Chinese government’s recent monetary stimulus measures could help to boost EV sales further in the coming quarters.\nNio’s financial performance has also been strong.\nDespite facing pricing pressure from competitors like Tesla and Li Auto, that have been cutting prices, Nio’s margins have remained quite resilient.\nIn Q2 2024, vehicle gross profit margins improved to +12.2%, up from 9.2% in Q1 and 6.2% in Q2 2023.\n<ul>\n <li>\n Improvement was driven by (a) higher delivery volumes and (b) easing supply chain challenges, despite a -10% drop in average selling prices.</li>\n</ul>\nThe Chinese EV market also continues to offer considerable growth opportunities.\nBased on data from China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), in October 2024, new energy vehicle sales (include EVs and plug-in hybrids) reached a record 1.4 million units, up +58% YoY and up +14% from September 2024.\n<blockquote>\n What is The CPCA ? It is a social group formed by 139 automakers, and sales data are reported by its members and are divided into wholesale and retail data.\n</blockquote>\n\n<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9d571a9e3ede9c5e18f3402b8ade2cbf\" tg-width=\"623\" tg-height=\"247\">\nWith (1) Nio’s premium lineup and (2) its new more value-oriented brands ie. Onvo and Firefly, the company is well-positioned to address a larger market.\nIncentives for EV purchases also remain quite attractive.\nChina’s provinces have implemented car trade-in subsidy policies besides introducing other policies to promote automotive consumption.\nUnder the scheme, consumers replacing an old gasoline vehicle with an NEV can receive up to 20,000 yuan (about USD2,800).\nSuch incentives can drive sales higher.\n<h2>Stock Performance.</h2>\n<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0eaee3ef30c972fc4b93852067d00dbd\" tg-width=\"785\" tg-height=\"430\">\n<ul>\n <li>\n YTD, Nio has lost about -44.54% to it stock price.</li>\n <li>\n It started the year at $8.90 per share on 02 Jan 2024.</li>\n <li>\n And it has been trending down since, with a minor “breakthrough” on 12 Mar 2024 at $6.29.</li>\n <li>\n Thereafter, it traded “aimlessly” until 02 Oct 2024 when it came “closer” to its Jan price at $7.56.</li>\n <li>\n On 28 Aug 2024, it even fell below $3.70 per share.</li>\n <li>\n How will Nio perform on 20 Nov 2024 when it reports its Q3 2024 earnings? Brace yourself !</li>\n</ul>\n<blockquote>\n Is there any truth in Forbes’s post by the Trefis team about NIO becoming $10 ? Honestly I have kind of given up hope on Nio’s “greatness”, it has a great product but a super weak management team.\n</blockquote>\n<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7dbe0aae1d9996f3e3bb681adf39ede5\" tg-width=\"619\" tg-height=\"133\">\nMust Read:&nbsp;Click on below titles to access. Give a like &amp; help to&nbsp;repost&nbsp;ok. Thanks.\n<ul>\n <li>\n <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/post/372816275738824\" target=\"_blank\">US Market Masters: Company, Govt or NVDA ?</a></li>\n <li>\n <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/post/372458934640928\" target=\"_blank\">DXYZ: Soars To $135 This Week? Possible ?</a></li>\n <li>\n <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/post/372452591022368\" target=\"_blank\">US Market's Fate Hangs on NVDA Earnings ?</a>\n </li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e3cfb2c49709577df30a69ffeb929a50\" tg-width=\"722\" tg-height=\"76\">\n<ul>\n <li>\n Do you think Nio will ever see the $10 price level in 2024?</li>\n <li>\n Do you think&nbsp;all things made-in-China will have high tariffs imposed on them by the returning president ?\n </li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a66224275e175394f5d9a8c214d01687\" tg-width=\"680\" tg-height=\"102\">\nIf you find this post interesting, give it wings! ️&nbsp;Repost&nbsp;and share the insights ?\nDo consider&nbsp;“Follow me”&nbsp;and get firsthand read of my daily new post. Thank you.\n<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3527667621665671\">@Daily_Discussion</a>\n<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3527667588142897\">@TigerPM</a>\n<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/9000000000000149\">@TigerStars</a>\n<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/4106547232749330\">@Tiger_SG</a>\n<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3527667667103859\">@TigerEvents</a></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d3a7858494c38e4b6d423c6c7cee8087\" tg-width=\"947\" tg-height=\"487\">\n<h2>Total Eclipse.</h2>\nIt has been a while since I last posted on NIO.\nThis Chinese EV maker is due to release its earnings report card today before US market trading begins, I thought I share a post on them.\nIf not, NIO’s spotlight will be ‘stolen’ and eclipsed by <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$</a> quarterly earnings that have already been hogging the limelight for the past few days and into Wednesday evening (US time).\n<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8934da78de1227212b60f49460d85f17\" tg-width=\"714\" tg-height=\"137\">\n<h2>Stock Take.</h2>\nFor October 2024, Chinese luxury electric vehicle maker <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a> stock reported deliveries of 20,976 vehicles; that is roughly flat versus September.\nComparatively speaking, Nio’s deliveries has been up +30% YoY.\nDeliveries for the first 10 months of 2024 came in at 170,257 vehicles. This is up +35% YoY.\nNio’s delivery performance was better than rivals ie. for instance <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/XPEV\">$XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$</a> delivered 23,917 vehicles for October 2024, up +20% compared to last year.\nXpeng’s total YTD sales for the first 10 months of 2024 stood at about 122,500 units, a +21% increase from the same period last year.\nIn comparison, <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/LI\">$Li Auto(LI)$</a>, the largest of the emerging EV players in China, it delivered 51,443 vehicles in October 2024. This is up +27.3% YoY.\n<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1ca6e10e87b393b3de3ace87982f39c6\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"200\">\n<h2>NIO’s catalysts.</h2>\n(1) Onvo.\nGrowth for Nio was driven largely by its value-priced Onvo brand, that sold a total of 4,319 vehicle units for the month.\nThe brand’s first vehicle, the Onvo L60, was launched in September 2024 and is priced between RMB 200,000 (USD28,000) and RMB 300,000 (USD42,000).\nNio operates a total of over 166 retail centers for the Onvo brand and also gives users access to 584 Nio battery swapping stations in China.\nSales are expected to scale up further as production trends higher.\n(2) Firefly. (coming end 2024)\nNio is also preparing to launch another brand called Firefly by the end of the year.\nFirefly’s first model, which will be a mix of small and compact SUV designs, will likely target even lower price points, expanding Nio’s presence further downmarket.\nNotably, NIO stock has performed worse than the broader market in each of the last 3 years.\nReturns for the stock were:\n<ul>\n <li>\n -35% in 2021.</li>\n <li>\n -69% in 2022.</li>\n <li>\n -7% in 2023.</li>\n</ul>\nGiven the current uncertain (a) new incoming president, (b) macroeconomic environment around rate cuts and (c) multiple wars — could NIO face a similar situation as it did in 2021, 2022, and 2023 and underperform the S&amp;P over the next 12 months.\n<blockquote>\n Will it see a recovery?\n</blockquote>\n<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a1e850a680d628b3be32451be4cd3174\" tg-width=\"891\" tg-height=\"166\">\n(1) Valuation.\n<ul>\n <li>\n Nio’s valuation is attractive.</li>\n <li>\n The stock trades at about $5 per share.</li>\n <li>\n That is about 1x consensus 2024 revenues, which is not expensive.</li>\n <li>\n Taking into considering that revenues are projected to grow by over +20% this year and by over +35% next year.</li>\n <li>\n If Nio continues this pace of growth, investors could potentially re-rate the stock higher, assigning it a higher multiple of over 2x, more in line with its Chinese peer Xpeng.</li>\n</ul>\nIn contrast, <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a> trades at about 7x forward revenue, even though revenues are likely to remain almost flat this year.\n(2) Stimulus.\nThe Chinese government’s recent monetary stimulus measures could help to boost EV sales further in the coming quarters.\nNio’s financial performance has also been strong.\nDespite facing pricing pressure from competitors like Tesla and Li Auto, that have been cutting prices, Nio’s margins have remained quite resilient.\nIn Q2 2024, vehicle gross profit margins improved to +12.2%, up from 9.2% in Q1 and 6.2% in Q2 2023.\n<ul>\n <li>\n Improvement was driven by (a) higher delivery volumes and (b) easing supply chain challenges, despite a -10% drop in average selling prices.</li>\n</ul>\nThe Chinese EV market also continues to offer considerable growth opportunities.\nBased on data from China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), in October 2024, new energy vehicle sales (include EVs and plug-in hybrids) reached a record 1.4 million units, up +58% YoY and up +14% from September 2024.\n<blockquote>\n What is The CPCA ? It is a social group formed by 139 automakers, and sales data are reported by its members and are divided into wholesale and retail data.\n</blockquote>\n\n<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9d571a9e3ede9c5e18f3402b8ade2cbf\" tg-width=\"623\" tg-height=\"247\">\nWith (1) Nio’s premium lineup and (2) its new more value-oriented brands ie. Onvo and Firefly, the company is well-positioned to address a larger market.\nIncentives for EV purchases also remain quite attractive.\nChina’s provinces have implemented car trade-in subsidy policies besides introducing other policies to promote automotive consumption.\nUnder the scheme, consumers replacing an old gasoline vehicle with an NEV can receive up to 20,000 yuan (about USD2,800).\nSuch incentives can drive sales higher.\n<h2>Stock Performance.</h2>\n<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0eaee3ef30c972fc4b93852067d00dbd\" tg-width=\"785\" tg-height=\"430\">\n<ul>\n <li>\n YTD, Nio has lost about -44.54% to it stock price.</li>\n <li>\n It started the year at $8.90 per share on 02 Jan 2024.</li>\n <li>\n And it has been trending down since, with a minor “breakthrough” on 12 Mar 2024 at $6.29.</li>\n <li>\n Thereafter, it traded “aimlessly” until 02 Oct 2024 when it came “closer” to its Jan price at $7.56.</li>\n <li>\n On 28 Aug 2024, it even fell below $3.70 per share.</li>\n <li>\n How will Nio perform on 20 Nov 2024 when it reports its Q3 2024 earnings? Brace yourself !</li>\n</ul>\n<blockquote>\n Is there any truth in Forbes’s post by the Trefis team about NIO becoming $10 ? Honestly I have kind of given up hope on Nio’s “greatness”, it has a great product but a super weak management team.\n</blockquote>\n<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7dbe0aae1d9996f3e3bb681adf39ede5\" tg-width=\"619\" tg-height=\"133\">\nMust Read:&nbsp;Click on below titles to access. Give a like &amp; help to&nbsp;repost&nbsp;ok. Thanks.\n<ul>\n <li>\n <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/post/372816275738824\" target=\"_blank\">US Market Masters: Company, Govt or NVDA ?</a></li>\n <li>\n <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/post/372458934640928\" target=\"_blank\">DXYZ: Soars To $135 This Week? Possible ?</a></li>\n <li>\n <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/post/372452591022368\" target=\"_blank\">US Market's Fate Hangs on NVDA Earnings ?</a>\n </li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e3cfb2c49709577df30a69ffeb929a50\" tg-width=\"722\" tg-height=\"76\">\n<ul>\n <li>\n Do you think Nio will ever see the $10 price level in 2024?</li>\n <li>\n Do you think&nbsp;all things made-in-China will have high tariffs imposed on them by the returning president ?\n </li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a66224275e175394f5d9a8c214d01687\" tg-width=\"680\" tg-height=\"102\">\nIf you find this post interesting, give it wings! ️&nbsp;Repost&nbsp;and share the insights ?\nDo consider&nbsp;“Follow me”&nbsp;and get firsthand read of my daily new post. Thank you.\n<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3527667621665671\">@Daily_Discussion</a>\n<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3527667588142897\">@TigerPM</a>\n<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/9000000000000149\">@TigerStars</a>\n<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/4106547232749330\">@Tiger_SG</a>\n<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3527667667103859\">@TigerEvents</a></body></html>","text":"Total Eclipse. It has been a while since I last posted on NIO. This Chinese EV maker is due to release its earnings report card today before US market trading begins, I thought I share a post on them. If not, NIO’s spotlight will be ‘stolen’ and eclipsed by $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ quarterly earnings that have already been hogging the limelight for the past few days and into Wednesday evening (US time). Stock Take. For October 2024, Chinese luxury electric vehicle maker $NIO Inc.(NIO)$ stock reported deliveries of 20,976 vehicles; that is roughly flat versus September. Comparatively speaking, Nio’s deliveries has been up +30% YoY. Deliveries for the first 10 months of 2024 came in at 170,257 vehicles. This is up +35% YoY. Nio’s delivery performance was better than rivals ie. for instance $XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$ delivered 23,917 vehicles for October 2024, up +20% compared to last year. Xpeng’s total YTD sales for the first 10 months of 2024 stood at about 122,500 units, a +21% increase from the same period last year. In comparison, $Li Auto(LI)$, the largest of the emerging EV players in China, it delivered 51,443 vehicles in October 2024. This is up +27.3% YoY. NIO’s catalysts. (1) Onvo. Growth for Nio was driven largely by its value-priced Onvo brand, that sold a total of 4,319 vehicle units for the month. The brand’s first vehicle, the Onvo L60, was launched in September 2024 and is priced between RMB 200,000 (USD28,000) and RMB 300,000 (USD42,000). Nio operates a total of over 166 retail centers for the Onvo brand and also gives users access to 584 Nio battery swapping stations in China. Sales are expected to scale up further as production trends higher. (2) Firefly. (coming end 2024) Nio is also preparing to launch another brand called Firefly by the end of the year. Firefly’s first model, which will be a mix of small and compact SUV designs, will likely target even lower price points, expanding Nio’s presence further downmarket. Notably, NIO stock has performed worse than the broader market in each of the last 3 years. Returns for the stock were: -35% in 2021. -69% in 2022. -7% in 2023. Given the current uncertain (a) new incoming president, (b) macroeconomic environment around rate cuts and (c) multiple wars — could NIO face a similar situation as it did in 2021, 2022, and 2023 and underperform the S&P over the next 12 months. Will it see a recovery? (1) Valuation. Nio’s valuation is attractive. The stock trades at about $5 per share. That is about 1x consensus 2024 revenues, which is not expensive. Taking into considering that revenues are projected to grow by over +20% this year and by over +35% next year. If Nio continues this pace of growth, investors could potentially re-rate the stock higher, assigning it a higher multiple of over 2x, more in line with its Chinese peer Xpeng. In contrast, $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ trades at about 7x forward revenue, even though revenues are likely to remain almost flat this year. (2) Stimulus. The Chinese government’s recent monetary stimulus measures could help to boost EV sales further in the coming quarters. Nio’s financial performance has also been strong. Despite facing pricing pressure from competitors like Tesla and Li Auto, that have been cutting prices, Nio’s margins have remained quite resilient. In Q2 2024, vehicle gross profit margins improved to +12.2%, up from 9.2% in Q1 and 6.2% in Q2 2023. Improvement was driven by (a) higher delivery volumes and (b) easing supply chain challenges, despite a -10% drop in average selling prices. The Chinese EV market also continues to offer considerable growth opportunities. Based on data from China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), in October 2024, new energy vehicle sales (include EVs and plug-in hybrids) reached a record 1.4 million units, up +58% YoY and up +14% from September 2024. What is The CPCA ? It is a social group formed by 139 automakers, and sales data are reported by its members and are divided into wholesale and retail data. With (1) Nio’s premium lineup and (2) its new more value-oriented brands ie. Onvo and Firefly, the company is well-positioned to address a larger market. Incentives for EV purchases also remain quite attractive. China’s provinces have implemented car trade-in subsidy policies besides introducing other policies to promote automotive consumption. Under the scheme, consumers replacing an old gasoline vehicle with an NEV can receive up to 20,000 yuan (about USD2,800). Such incentives can drive sales higher. Stock Performance. YTD, Nio has lost about -44.54% to it stock price. It started the year at $8.90 per share on 02 Jan 2024. And it has been trending down since, with a minor “breakthrough” on 12 Mar 2024 at $6.29. Thereafter, it traded “aimlessly” until 02 Oct 2024 when it came “closer” to its Jan price at $7.56. On 28 Aug 2024, it even fell below $3.70 per share. How will Nio perform on 20 Nov 2024 when it reports its Q3 2024 earnings? Brace yourself ! Is there any truth in Forbes’s post by the Trefis team about NIO becoming $10 ? Honestly I have kind of given up hope on Nio’s “greatness”, it has a great product but a super weak management team. Must Read: Click on below titles to access. Give a like & help to repost ok. Thanks. US Market Masters: Company, Govt or NVDA ? DXYZ: Soars To $135 This Week? Possible ? US Market's Fate Hangs on NVDA Earnings ? Do you think Nio will ever see the $10 price level in 2024? Do you think all things made-in-China will have high tariffs imposed on them by the returning president ? If you find this post interesting, give it wings! ️ Repost and share the insights ? Do consider “Follow me” and get firsthand read of my daily new post. Thank you. @Daily_Discussion @TigerPM @TigerStars @Tiger_SG @TigerEvents","highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/373070818918696","repostId":0,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"commentLimit":10,"symbols":["NVDA","XPEV","NIO","TSLA","LI","09866","02015","09868"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4782,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":389,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/373801923154064"}