The US Stock Market remains in a Bullish Zone

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Market Performance Overview

• Average Index Closing Price: 5,992.7 (+1.91%)

• Current Trend Zone: Bullish

• Investment Position: Buy and Hold

This week’s rebound followed last week’s decline, reflecting recovery-driven buying momentum. The upward movement indicates temporary strength in the market, but the broader outlook suggests that the current phase is still within a correction trend.

Long-Term Investment Strategy

Trend Overview:
The market remains within a Bullish Zone, characterized by:

• Uptrend: Sustained upward momentum with occasional pullbacks.

• Correction Trend: Limited downward movements interspersed with upward recoveries.

Strategic Recommendations:

• Position: Buy and Hold.

  • Focus on maintaining current positions to benefit from long-term growth.

  • Monitor for a shift to a Bearish Zone as a potential exit signal.

Performance to Date:

• Entry into Bullish Zone: August 11, 2024

• Duration in Bullish Zone: 14 weeks

• Cumulative Gain: +8.0%

• Buying Price: 5,546.9

• Current Price: 5,992.7

• Increase: +445.8

Mid-Term and Early 2025 Projections

1. Corrective Phase Outlook:

   • Expected to continue through mid to late December 2024.

   • Downward pressure likely to intensify, with a possible transition to a Bearish Zone.

2. Rebound Expectations:

   • A short-term rebound is anticipated by late December or early January 2025.

   • This recovery may be temporary, with the market likely resuming a broader bearish trend.

3. Strategic Takeaway:

   • Maintain a cautious approach, focusing on defensive sectors and hedging strategies.

   • Reallocate capital to reduce downside risks while preparing for potential recovery opportunities.

Short-Term Investment Strategy

Current Trend Behavior:
The market is transitioning from a Correction Trend to an Uptrend, with small declines giving way to stronger upward movements.

10-Week Forecast:

• Expected Trend Movement: Predominantly downward (7:3 ratio of downward to upward trends).

• Trend Intensity:

  • Upward: Higher than average.

  • Downward: Moderate.

Strategic Recommendations:

• Position: Neutral

  • Optimal Selling Timing: This week or next week (November 25), targeting a price of 6,062.7.

  • Optimal Buying Timing: Uncertain at this stage, requiring further observation of market trends.

Predicted Price Range (Next 10 Weeks):

• Upper Bound: 6,029.7 (+0.6%)

• Lower Bound: 5,792.7 (-3.3%)

• Median Price: 5,911.2 (-1.4%)

Key Indicators and Insights

1. Trend Intensity Analysis:

   • Current Zone & Level: Bullish (54%).

   • Expected Zone & Level (Next 10 Weeks): Bullish (2%).

     • Upward Strength: 57%.

     • Downward Strength: -50%.

2. Turning Points:

   • First Trend Reversal: 2 weeks from now (December 2).

   • Second Trend Reversal: 7 weeks from now (January 1, 2025).

3. Volatility of Predictions:

   • Predictions exhibit low volatility due to a balanced Buy-Sell intensity.

4. Average Closing Price Predictions:

   • In Case of Rising: +1.8% (range: +2.3% to -0.9%).

   • In Case of Falling: -1.3% (range: +1.2% to -2.1%).

Summary of Key Actions

Strategic Takeaways

The US Stock Market remains in a Bullish Zone but is showing signs of prolonged correction and potential bearish pressure in the coming weeks.

For Long-Term Investors:

• Stick to a Buy and Hold strategy while monitoring for significant changes in trend direction.

For Short-Term Traders:

• Take advantage of selling opportunities around 6,062.7 and prepare for potential buying opportunities as trends stabilize.

The market’s high upward strength and moderate downward intensity suggest temporary resilience, but vigilance is necessary as downside risks increase into early 2025. Maintain a flexible approach to capitalize on both upward and downward movements.