TSLA remains firmly in a Downtrend

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$

Market Performance Overview

• TSLA Closing Price: $338.2 (-0.11%)

• Current Trend Zone: Bearish

• Investment Position: Sell and Observe

TSLA stock experienced a slight decline, closing at $338.2, marking its first day within the Bearish Zone. With selling pressure intensifying, TSLA is entering a Downtrend phase characterized by strong downward movements and limited upward rebounds.

Long-Term Investment Strategy

Trend Characteristics in the Bearish Zone:

• Downtrend: Dominated by strong downward momentum, with intermittent upward movements.

• Rebound Trend: Weak and short-lived upward price fluctuations.

Strategic Recommendations:

• Position: Sell and Observe

  • Hold off on new long-term investments until the trend transitions into the Bullish Zone.

  • Avoid significant exposure to minimize downside risks.

Performance to Date:

• Entry into Bearish Zone: November 25, 2024

• Duration in Bearish Zone: 1 day

• Cumulative Return: -0.1%

• Selling Price: $338.6

• Current Price: $338.2

• Decrease: -$0.4

Short-Term Investment Strategy

Current Trend Behavior:
TSLA remains firmly in a Downtrend, with strong selling pressure and temporary rebounds. Despite a higher proportion of upward movements (6:4 ratio), the intensity of downward movements is expected to dominate in the short term.

10-Day Forecast:

• Trend Movement: Sideways box pattern with a downward bias.

• Trend Intensity:

  • Upward Intensity: Moderate.

  • Downward Intensity: High.

Strategic Recommendations:

• Position: Sell (Bearish)

  • Optimal Buying Timing: November 29–December 2 (target price: $317.4).

  • Optimal Selling Timing: December 3–4 (target price: $337.6).

Predicted Price Range (Next 10 Days):

• Upper Bound: $344.9 (+2.0%)

• Lower Bound: $321.0 (-5.1%)

• Median Price: $333.0 (-1.6%)

Key Indicators and Insights

1. Correlation with US Market Index:

   • TSLA's price movements align with the US Stock Market Average Index 75% of the time.

   • This moderate correlation suggests potential sensitivity to broader market trends.

2. Trend Turning Points:

   • First Reversal: November 30 (4 days from now).

   • Second Reversal: December 4 (8 days from now).

3. Volatility of Predictions:

   • Predictions exhibit low volatility due to stable buy-sell intensity.

4. Average Closing Price Predictions:

   • In Case of Rising: +2.3% (range: +3.7% to -1.0%).

   • In Case of Falling: -3.2% (range: +1.2% to -3.9%).

Analysis of Trend Zone and Intensity

• Last 30-Day Average Zone Level: 17% (Bullish).

• Current Zone Level: -14% (Bearish).

• Expected 10-Day Zone Level: -87% (Bearish).

Trend Intensity Forecast:

• Upward Intensity: 27% (moderate).

• Downward Intensity: -73% (strong).

Summary of Key Actions

Strategic Takeaways

TSLA's entry into the Bearish Zone suggests caution for both long-term and short-term investors.

For Long-Term Investors:

• Avoid large investments. Monitor for a transition to the Bullish Zone before re-entering.

For Short-Term Traders:

• Prepare to buy at $317.4 between November 29 and December 2, capturing potential rebound opportunities.

• Plan to sell at $337.6 between December 3 and 4 to capitalize on temporary upward movements.