Nov 2024 Update: Inflation, stock value and financial goals

MilkTeaBro
11-30

In the long run, in the case of pure inflation, where input and output prices rise at exactly the same rate, inflation has no impact on the real value of stock prices and the real returns on stocks will not be affected. The historical evidence overwhelmingly supports this contention.

But the short run is far more complicated. Input and output prices may increase at different rates, depending on whether supply shocks or demand shocks impact the economy. Furthermore, inflation may prompt the Fed to increase real rates to slow the rate of price increases down to their target levels. Finally, our tax system, not adequately indexed to inflation, causes a higher effective tax rate on real capital gains and potentially higher taxes on corporations. For that reason, in the short term, real stock returns are often depressed by inflation.

My financial goals is capital preservation and beat inflation.

Dividend stocks are perfect for me.

In the inflation and interest rates hiking environment, accumulated stocks and collected dividends. In the inflation stable and interest rates cutting environment I can trim position and lock profits.

November 2024, paper loss 10k, or -2%.

Year 2024, dividend income was 20k.

I locked profits from $ThaiBev(Y92.SI)$ in November, only keep 100 shares for monitoring, dividends yield was only 3.8% after Thailand tax at current price, it was much lower than other STI index components.



Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

  • bouncee
    12-02
    bouncee
    You've laid out a thorough analysis
  • MojoStellar
    12-01
    MojoStellar
    love your excel sheet. can share?
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