Overview of Strategy
On November 18, 2024, I implemented a multi-leg option strategy on iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), combining a long-term bullish outlook with a short-term income generation plan. The strategy involved:
Buying a call option with a strike price of $84, expiring on April 17, 2025, at a cost of $745 per contract, to benefit from potential long-term price appreciation in TLT.
Selling a call option with a strike price of $92, expiring on November 29, 2024, for an initial premium of $21 per contract, and later rolling it to December 6, 2024, for an additional premium of $30 per contract.
This strategy was designed to capitalize on seasonal strength in long-term Treasurys while reducing the net cost of the long-term call option by generating premium income through short-term covered calls.
Rationale Behind the Strategy
Bullish Seasonality in TLT:
Historical data suggested a seasonal upswing in TLT prices during the year-end period, with the ETF rising in 17 out of 22 years (77% probability). The average gain in up years was 5.1%, providing an opportunity for short-term price appreciation.
Despite broader macroeconomic challenges, such as high yields and Federal Reserve policies, the seasonal trend provided a favorable risk-reward scenario for initiating a bullish trade.
Income Generation Through Short Calls:
Selling short-dated calls at the $92 strike price, close to the ETF’s price of $89.80, allowed for immediate income generation and reduced the net cost of the long-term call.
Rolling the call to the December 6 maturity added further premium income, offsetting the cost of the long-term bullish position.
Hedging Risk:
The combination of the long-dated call and short-term covered calls provided a balanced approach to managing risk. While the short call capped potential gains above $92, it created a buffer against potential losses by reducing the net upfront cost.
Outcome and Adjustments
Assignment and Short Sale:
On November 29, 2024, the counterpart exercised the short call option when TLT traded at $94, resulting in a short sale of TLT at $92. While this led to a loss of $2 per share on the short position, the loss was partially mitigated by the $51 in total premiums collected from the short calls.
Covering the Short Sale:
On December 2, 2024, I closed the short position by buying back TLT at $93.27, incurring an additional loss of $1.27 per share. However, this loss was still within the acceptable range due to the offsetting premium income.
Selling the Long Call:
After the short position was closed, I sold the long-dated call option with a strike price of $84 for $1,025 per contract, realizing a profit of $280 per contract ($1,025 - $745). This represented the primary gain from the strategy, capitalizing on TLT’s upward movement during the period.
Financial Summary
Premium Income from Short Calls: $51
Loss on Short Sale:
Initial sale at $92
Buyback at $93.27
Total Loss: $1.27 per share or $127 per contract
Profit on Long Call:
Cost: $745
Sale: $1,025
Total Profit: $280 per contract
Net Profit/Loss:
Premiums ($51) + Long Call Profit ($280) - Short Sale Loss ($127) = $204 profit per contract
Reflection on the Strategy
Strengths of the Strategy:
Premium Generation: Selling short calls provided income that reduced the net cost of the long call, cushioning against adverse price movements.
Flexibility: Rolling the short call to a later date (December 6) allowed me to capture additional income as the price of TLT appreciated.
Profit from Long Call: The long-dated call allowed me to benefit from TLT’s seasonal rally, even though the capped upside from the short call limited the overall profitability.
Challenges and Risks:
Assignment Risk: The short call being exercised at $92 when TLT traded at $94 resulted in an unfavorable short sale. While expected in such strategies, the subsequent buyback at $93.27 added to the losses.
Limited Upside: The short call capped gains, which could have been significant given TLT’s rally. While the long call profited, the short call constrained the total profit potential of the trade.
Complex Adjustments: Managing multiple legs of the trade (rolling the short call, handling assignment, and closing the short position) required active monitoring and execution.
Insights and Lessons:
Consider Wider Strikes for Short Calls: Selling a call with a higher strike price (e.g., $94 instead of $92) could have allowed more room for price appreciation, increasing the net profitability of the trade.
Account for Assignment Costs: While the premiums helped reduce costs, assignment and buyback losses should be anticipated and factored into the strategy upfront.
Seasonal Trends Are Not Guarantees: Although TLT experienced a rally consistent with seasonal trends, broader macroeconomic risks (e.g., high interest rates) could have disrupted the trade, highlighting the need for caution.
Conclusion
This TLT option strategy demonstrated a creative approach to balancing short-term income generation with a long-term bullish view. While the net financial outcome was near breakeven, the strategy showcased the importance of actively managing multi-leg trades and accounting for risks like assignment. For future trades, refining the strike prices of short calls and considering potential assignment costs could help optimize profitability. This experience underscored the need for flexibility and vigilance when employing complex option strategies in volatile markets.
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